174
FXUS61 KRNK 052354
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A WEDGE OF
COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL PERIODICALLY PUSH RAIN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... NO CHANGES. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING
RAIN FALLING JUST SOUTH FO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. CLOUDS ARE THICKER SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH
MUCH OF THE NC HIGH COUNTRY STUCK WITHIN THE CLOUD BASE
RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITY THERE.
KEY MESSAGE:
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
YOU CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
FRONT STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME
TIME, PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DIVERGENCE, COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CENTERING ON THE BETTER PROBABILITIES
STAYING ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER
WV.
WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE INSTABILITY IS NEXT TO NONE, SO A MAINLY
STRATIFORM RAIN CHANCE INTO WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST VA MTNS INTO WV WHERE OUTSIDE THE WEDGE,
LIMITED SUNSHINE COULD BRING SBCAPES UP AROUND 500 J/KG LEADING
TO A FEW STORMS WED AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS FLOODING CONCERNS, LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT THIS INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME TRAINING OF STEADY RAIN MAY
CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS OR MINOR STREET FLOODING IN
THE URBAN AREA OVER THE PIEDMONT BUT NOT A FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HANG AROUND
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP US WEDGED IN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. AS IS TYPICAL WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING, THICK CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKY, AND SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN WILL FALL TO KEEP THINGS FEELING DAMP. TO AMPLIFY THIS, THERE
IS AN AREA OF TROPICAL INTEREST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY BOTH EXIST.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WEDGE IS THE BLOCKING OF THE MAJORITY OF
INSOLATION, KEEPING THE ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEDGING
AIR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EVEN FURTHER SUPPRESSED AS THERE IS LITTLE
SUNLIGHT TO WARM THINGS UP. IN ADDITION, THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAKE IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE TEMPERATURE TO FLUCTUATE.
THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL APPLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SATURDAY
COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. A WAVE WILL BE MOVING
EAST OVER THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, AND
BY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE WEDGE-CAUSING HIGH OUT OF
POSITION. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF EROSION, SATURDAY COULD SEE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY GROW, AGAIN MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
BELOW THE VA/NC STATE LINE. SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS DISCUSSED, BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY HERE TO STAY THIS WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70S, WITH THE PIEDMONT BREAKING INTO THE LOW 80S THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE WEDGE AS WELL, WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WEDGE ERODES AND TEMPERATURES HEAD BACK TO NORMAL
BY SUNDAY THE WEDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL
MOSTLY BE ERODED AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, AS WE KEEP AN EYE ON AN AREA OF TROPICAL INTEREST
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION,
THE NHC GIVES THIS ZONE A 40% CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHETHER THE CYCLONE FORMS AND WHAT TRACK
IT TAKES WILL DRIVE A LOT OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST INCLUDES DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT IN A BENIGN, STANDARD AUGUST ENVIRONMENT, WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH.
WITH THE WEDGE GONE, EXPECT THE MERCURY IN YOUR THERMOMETER TO RISE
AS WE GET MORE SUNLIGHT AND LESS COOL AIR ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MVFR TO VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE LOWER
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE TERRAIN INTERSECTS THE CLOUD BASE. RADAR INDICATES RAIN
FALLING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF I-40. THIS AREA OF RAIN
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VA TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 6KTS OUT OF THE EAST
EAST THROUGH THE 24 HR VALID TAF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WX PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STAY SIMILAR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND FLUCTUATING CIGS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM
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