770
FXUS61 KRNK 061050
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A WEDGE OF
COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TOUGH PUSHING EAST WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE PIEDMONT TODAY, BUT A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUALLY TRACK OF ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EAST TODAY. AS IT DOES, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH THE PIEDMONT POTENTIALLY SEEING
TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES TODAY. WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE, MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED RAINFALL AS MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTH AND RIDES OVER THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. WHILE
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY, RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SIDE AS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THIS
STABLE SURFACE LAYER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. DUE TO THIS STABLE
LAYER, THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED; HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR
TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS, THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TODAY, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS AND THE POTENTIALLY
FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVERALL, EXPECT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY, WITH AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP US WEDGED IN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH COOL EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F TO 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WEDGE ERODES AND TEMPERATURES HEAD BACK TO NORMAL
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A BUBBLE HIGH WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA. THE EROSION OF THE COOL WEDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE GULF STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING BACK WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. ALSO AS THE WEDGE ERODES, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES
WILL CLIMB AND THEREFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO CREEP INTO MOST TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH DAN AND ROA.
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. THE
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OFF AND ON AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BLF AND
LWB THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TODAY. BATCHES OF RAIN LOOK TO MOSTLY IMPACT DAN
AND LYH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS RAINFALL THAT PROGRESSES NORTH
WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
FROM THE STUBBORN WEDGE THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION ALL
WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THESE RESTRICTIONS MENTIONED, WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WX PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STAY SIMILAR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND FLUCTUATING CIGS. MORE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH BY SATURDAY, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE
MORE RESTRICTIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/PM
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