257  
FXUS61 KRNK 061432  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
1032 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A WEDGE OF  
COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TOUGH PUSHING EAST WILL  
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE PIEDMONT TODAY, BUT A STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING  
ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND  
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUALLY TRACK OF ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE  
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  
 
2) SOME MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHSIDE VA AND WITH  
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
AREAS OF HEAVY DRIZZLE, LIGHT RAIN, AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
AREA IN THIS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SCENARIO. AN AREA OF SHORT  
WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING MEAN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE  
TO INTERACT WITH THE WEDGE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE  
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE  
LIGHT NORTHWEST OF A MARTINSVILLE TO LYNCHBURG LINE. QPF AMOUNTS  
INCREASE MARKEDLY TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM AND STOKES COUNTIES IN NC,  
AND PITTSYLVANIA AND HALIFAX COUNTIES IN SW VA. THESE SITES  
WILL SEE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN, THE  
HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. CAMS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT  
RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES AND LOCALLY MORE TOWARDS RALEIGH. AT  
THIS TIME PROBABILITIES OF REACHING MORE THAN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN  
OUR AREA (AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES) ARE TOO LOW TO CONSIDER A  
FLOOD WATCH. FFG VALUES FOR 6 HOURS ARE AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES IN  
THAT AREA, AND THIS RAIN WILL FALL OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD, SO NOT  
EXPECTING TO REACH FFG.  
 
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COOL WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT  
RAIN, WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW  
70S. I DID LOWER HIGHS IN THE WEDGE AREA BY A COUPLE DEGREES FOR  
THIS UPDATE.  
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF  
RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY DRAPED  
ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO  
PROGRESS EAST TODAY. AS IT DOES, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT  
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST  
OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH THE PIEDMONT POTENTIALLY SEEING  
TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES TODAY. WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE  
OVER THE REGION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE  
NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOLER THAN  
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL  
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE, MUCH OF THE  
RAINFALL WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED RAINFALL AS MOISTURE  
PUSHES NORTH AND RIDES OVER THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. WHILE  
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES ACROSS  
THE PIEDMONT TODAY, RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT  
TO MODERATE SIDE AS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THIS  
STABLE SURFACE LAYER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. DUE TO THIS STABLE  
LAYER, THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED; HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR  
TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS, THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL  
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EAST OF THE BLUE  
RIDGE TODAY, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS AND THE POTENTIALLY  
FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVERALL, EXPECT  
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY, WITH AREAS EAST OF  
THE BLUE RIDGE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 120 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
 
AN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP US WEDGED IN THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH COOL EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS,  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F TO 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. THERE  
MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EACH DAY,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- WEDGE ERODES AND TEMPERATURES HEAD BACK TO NORMAL  
 
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A BUBBLE HIGH WILL REMAIN  
IN THE AREA. THE EROSION OF THE COOL WEDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES  
TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE GULF STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING BACK WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO  
THE REGION. ALSO AS THE WEDGE ERODES, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES  
WILL CLIMB AND THEREFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
INCREASE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 645 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO CREEP INTO MOST TERMINALS THIS  
MORNING, WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH DAN AND ROA. THIS  
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS  
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE  
AREA OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. THE MVFR TO LIFR  
CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO  
LINGER OFF AND ON AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BLF AND LWB THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS DEVELOPING  
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING  
HOURS TODAY. BATCHES OF RAIN LOOK TO MOSTLY IMPACT DAN AND LYH  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS RAINFALL THAT PROGRESSES NORTH WILL LIKELY  
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FROM THE  
STUBBORN WEDGE THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK.  
OUTSIDE OF THESE RESTRICTIONS MENTIONED, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT  
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY AND  
TONIGHT.  
   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
 
 
WX PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STAY SIMILAR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH  
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND FLUCTUATING CIGS. MORE  
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH BY SATURDAY, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE  
MORE RESTRICTIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...EB  
NEAR TERM...EB/SH  
SHORT TERM...RCS  
LONG TERM...RCS  
AVIATION...EB/PM  
 
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