623
FXUS61 KRNK 061830
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A WEDGE OF
COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TOUGH PUSHING EAST WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUALLY TRACK OF ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE NC PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE LIGHT AND TAPERING OFF.
PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED TO
FALL, MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY/MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AT THE SURFACE TO BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH MORNING TOTALING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH IN THE
FOOTHILLS TO AS HIGH AS AN INCH AS YOU GO FARTHER SE. QPF
AMOUNTS INCREASE MARKEDLY TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM AND STOKES COUNTIES
IN NC, AND PITTSYLVANIA AND HALIFAX COUNTIES IN SW VA. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FALLING FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
RALEIGH. AT THIS TIME ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING MORE
THAN 1.5 AND EVEN 1 INCH IN OUR AREA (AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES)
ARE QUITE LOW. FFG VALUES FOR 6 HOURS ARE AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES
IN THAT AREA, SO NOT EXPECTING TO REACH FFG. RAIN GRADUALLY
TAPERS OFF AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST.
OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME FOG. EXPECT THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER
FOR SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL
STILL BE CLOUDY AND BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS, WHICH WILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO HOLD US IN
A WEDGE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN
SITUATED FIRMLY OVERHEAD. THE COLD AIR DAMMING WILL KEEP THE SKY
ALMOST ENTIRELY OVERCAST DURING THIS PERIOD, BLOCKING THE SUN
FROM DOING MUCH TO WARM THINGS UP. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN ABOUT 5- 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN USUAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND 70S EAST. ALONG WITH THE
OVERCAST SKIES, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE WILL PROVIDE
FOR LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT WITH ANY RAIN THAT DOES
FALL.
COME SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO FALTER AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH IS BEING MONITORED TO
POTENTIALLY BECOME THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM, WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD, STARTING THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE WEDGE. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NC, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM AS THE SUN FINALLY BREAKS THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MORE SUMMERY PATTERN RETURNS, TEMPERATURES WARM UP
AFTER THE WEDGE IS DISPLACED, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SET UP
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WE WILL BE LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE, AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
GULF AND START TO WARM THINGS BACK UP. IN ADDITION, THE OVERCAST
SKIES WILL BREAK AND THE SUN WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM
THINGS UP AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND HEADED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THIS MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN,
AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE, PLACING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ANY
CHANCE FOR VFR CEILINGS/CONDITIONS RELEGATED TO BLF AND LWB IN
A STRANGE TURN OF EVENTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR LYH AND DAN. ELSEWHERE RAIN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. LWB, BCB, AND DAN WILL SEE
THE LOWEST COMBINATION VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TO
PRODUCE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-14Z. TOMORROW, WE
WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER
14Z, WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE RESTRICTIONS MENTIONED, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY, WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY GUSTY TO 15 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STAY SIMILAR INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAINLY IMPACTING
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND NORTHERN NC, MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR
TAF SITES. FLUCTUATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS LIFR
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ANY RAIN AND DURING THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAINFALL FOOTPRINT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH
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