498
FXUS61 KRNK 062334
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A WEDGE OF
COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
THIS BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) RAINFALL ABOUT GONE, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING.
NOTICEABLE CONVECTION IN EAST KY SPILLING OVER INTO THE
CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF VA/KY. AT THIS TIME, MODELS START TO
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WANING AS IT APPROACHES OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
CWA. MEANWHILE, LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN PATCHES FROM THE NRV TO
THE PIEDMONT BUT MOSTLY A NON MEASURABLE OR VERY LOW AMOUNT
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME UPTICK IN PATCHY RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF DEEPER CONVERGENCE STARTS TO SHIFT WEST
COINCIDENT WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST AS RADAR TREND SHOWS DRYING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEW RIVER VALLEY SOUTH TO THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER
FROM MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MAIN INSTABILITY IS OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE OVER FAR SW VA AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NC TRIANGLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED TO
FALL, MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY/MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AT THE SURFACE TO BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO NIL
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH MORNING TOTALING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH IN THE
FOOTHILLS TO AS HIGH AS AN INCH AS YOU GO FARTHER SE. QPF
AMOUNTS INCREASE MARKEDLY TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM AND STOKES COUNTIES
IN NC, AND PITTSYLVANIA AND HALIFAX COUNTIES IN SW VA. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FALLING FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
RALEIGH. AT THIS TIME ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING MORE
THAN 1.5 AND EVEN 1 INCH IN OUR AREA (AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES)
ARE QUITE LOW. FFG VALUES FOR 6 HOURS ARE AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES
IN THAT AREA, SO NOT EXPECTING TO REACH FFG. RAIN GRADUALLY
TAPERS OFF AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST.
OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME FOG. EXPECT THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER
FOR SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL
STILL BE CLOUDY AND BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS, WHICH WILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO HOLD US IN
A WEDGE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COOL MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN
SITUATED FIRMLY OVERHEAD. THE COLD AIR DAMMING WILL KEEP THE SKY
ALMOST ENTIRELY OVERCAST DURING THIS PERIOD, BLOCKING THE SUN
FROM DOING MUCH TO WARM THINGS UP. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN ABOUT 5- 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN USUAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND 70S EAST. ALONG WITH THE
OVERCAST SKIES, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE WILL PROVIDE
FOR LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT WITH ANY RAIN THAT DOES
FALL.
COME SATURDAY THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO FALTER AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH IS BEING MONITORED TO
POTENTIALLY BECOME THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM, WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD, STARTING THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE WEDGE. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NC, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM AS THE SUN FINALLY BREAKS THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MORE SUMMERY PATTERN RETURNS, TEMPERATURES WARM UP
AFTER THE WEDGE IS DISPLACED, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SET UP
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WE WILL BE LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE, AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
GULF AND START TO WARM THINGS BACK UP. IN ADDITION, THE OVERCAST
SKIES WILL BREAK AND THE SUN WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM
THINGS UP AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND HEADED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THIS MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN,
AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE, PLACING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME
VFR AT LYH. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE MAINLY SUB-VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, MOST MVFR IN THE 1-3KFT RANGE WITH VSBYS
>3SM.
ENOUGH OF SOME CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO BECOME A PROBLEM
AT LWB, POSSIBLY BLF/BCB LATE, WITH LIFR FORECAST AT TIMES.
MAY NOT SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT TIL AFTER 18Z AT MOST SITES TO VFR
SOME MVFR EAST AT LYH/DAN.
WITH RAINFALL LOOKING SPARSE KEPT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY,
WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY GUSTY TO 15 KTS IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
TRENDS POINTING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH RESIDUAL WEDGE,
MAY BE A CASE OF VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING TIL EARLY EVENING,
THEN SOME LOWER CIGS/FOG AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. RAIN
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS IF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DEVELOPS FURTHER WEST. AT THIS TIME, LOOKING MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE
OF LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS INTO MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH/WP
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