090
FXUS61 KRNK 071053
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
653 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN WEDGING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK AS THE
WEDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FROM A STALLED BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE, CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK;
HOWEVER, A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY, BUT WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY.
WEDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE VORTICITY
MAXIMA ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST TODAY, WHICH WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY. ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY, CLOUD COVER WILL
AGAIN BE PLENTIFUL AREAWIDE. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL AGAIN, WITH HIGHS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. OVERALL, WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED TODAY, THERE IS NO THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKE
THERE HAS BEEN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, BUT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE
DRIFTS FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA, STARTING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WEDGE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN 5F TO 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN HUMIDITIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM AND HUMID.
2) STORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY, THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TUESDAY AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN BEING OBSERVED NEAR
LYH. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN BRIEF
PERIODS OF VFR TO MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH EVENTUAL LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE 20-00 UTC TIMEFRAME FOR ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LOOK TO DEVELOP THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS AS WEDGE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
TRENDS POINTING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH RESIDUAL WEDGE,
MAY BE A CASE OF VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING TIL EARLY EVENING,
THEN SOME LOWER CIGS/FOG AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS IF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DEVELOPS FURTHER WEST. AT THIS TIME, LOOKING MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE
OF LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS INTO MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/WP
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