590
FXUS61 KRNK 071743
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN WEDGING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK AS THE
WEDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL
INTERACT WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE, CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK;
HOWEVER, A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CLOUDS FOR ALL AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
WEDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY OVER SC AND NC WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SLOWLY SOUTH, AND RESIDUAL PVA TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFTING FOR ASCENT TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK UNLIKELY.
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL AREAWIDE. THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS AREAWIDE FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S, AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1100 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
3. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TRENDING HIGHER EACH DAY, REACHING
VALUES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
A LOOK AT THE 7 AUG 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER
THE NORTHEAST US COAST. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER NEAR MT/DAKOTAS, AND A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NM. FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, THE WEAK NE US
TROUGH SHIFTS TO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF AMPLIFICATION ON ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SW US TO
SE US AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST COAST WITH RIDGING CONTINUING OVER SW AND SE CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE, FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO NEAR
TN/GA. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS
EXCEPT FOR WHAT WHAT ONE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS, DIVIDING INTO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS. THE ONE SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OTHER NORTH TO
OVER MANITOBA. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THE LEE RIDGE MAY SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING, BUT CONTINUING TO EXIST NONETHELESS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER MANITOBA, AND A
LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A LOOK AT THE 7 AUG 00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
DATA SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OF
AROUND +14C. VALUES WILL TREND HIGHER EACH DAY, REACHING AROUND
+16C TO +17C ON SATURDAY AND THEN +17C TO +18C FOR SUNDAY.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SUCH THAT FLOW INTO OUR REGION WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO
SUNDAY, THIS FLOW WILL CHANGE AND DEVELOP MORE OF SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER,
ON SUNDAY, WE ARE EXPECT THE ONSET OF BETTER RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TO HELP PROMPT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1100 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES TRENDING HIGHER TO VALUES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WED/THURS.
A LOOK A THE 7 AUG 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES BECOME PART OF AN EVEN LONGERWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING WILL
FLANK THE TROUGH OVER BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST OF THE US.
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF CANADA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE US. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THREE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE GREATER FLOW PATTERN. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ANOTHER
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND A THIRD OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS CONUS AND
CANADA. FOR THURSDAY, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE BROAD SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTER IS EXPECTED. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CANADA WITH
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING WITHIN THE BROADER LONGWAVE
FLOW.
AT THE SURFACE, FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS, WITH
ITS PARENT HIGH CENTER WELL EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS, AND A SECOND WILL
BE NOT AS WELL DEFINED BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE NOT WELL
DEFINED, TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FOR
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WEAK TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. FOR THURSDAY, THE HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSE VALLEYS.
A LOOK AT THE 7 AUG 00Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
DATA SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +18C ON MONDAY, +18C TO
+19C ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND +19C TO +20C FOR THURSDAY.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. WE
WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
PRIMARILY ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS, TO ONE WHERE THE
MAIN AXIS IS EITHER SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MOISTURE FLOW PATTERN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AROUND
THIS HIGH AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL HELP NOT ONLY TO
PROVIDE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT A TREND TOWARDS PROGRESSIVELY MILDER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK. INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
MAY HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF NOT ONLY SHOWERS, BUT SOME STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATER HALF OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY AT LWB, AND LYH, WHILE DAN, ROA,
BCB AND BLF HAD MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEING
OBSERVED NEAR DAN. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DROPPING AGAIN TOWARDS LIFR TO IFR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT BUT
ROA. ROA WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
TRENDS POINTING TOWARD DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH RESIDUAL WEDGING,
WE WILL SEE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING TIL
EARLY EVENING, THEN SOME LOWER CIGS/FOG AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS SOUTH OF DAN. AT THIS TIME, LOOKING MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS INTO TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EB/SH
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