496
FXUS61 KRNK 080706
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
306 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN COOL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY, CLOUD COVER BEING
PLENTIFUL AT TIMES, BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN. A GRADUAL WARM-
UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN THREAT.
FORECAST REFLECTS A WEDGE ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. THERE
IS LITTLE OR NO PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE
ITSELF, BUT STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE REMNANT UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS ALONG SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S...
POSSIBLY 80 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW NC HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY.
A RESIDUAL WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WEDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW BUT COULD SEE A
STRAY SHOWERS FORM ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NW NC BLUE RIDGE,
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 3F TO 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. SUNDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM AND HUMID.
2) DIURNAL STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS PERIOD. NOW THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS DIURNAL STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS.
LIFR ASSOCIATED WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY VCNTY OF LWB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MID MORNING WITH PRIMARILY VFR AFTER 10AM/15Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING MORNING FOG AND STRATUS AND
TRANSITION TO FAIR WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASING NEXT WEEK WITH
PATTERN SHIFTING TOWARD DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
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