417
FXUS61 KRNK 081829
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BRINGING AN END TO CONSISTENTLY OVERCAST SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD COOLER WEATHER. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE PIEDMONT AREA WARMING
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BEGINNING
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 210 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.
2) WARMER AND DRY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST,
ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS TO SHIFT EAST. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WAS STILL DAMMED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WAS NOTABLE IN TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WITH MID LEVEL NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE DRYING CONTRIBUTING TO CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHSIDE VA
AND THE NC PIEDMONT, WHILE VERY DENSE CLOUD COVER GENERALLY WAS
FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
WEDGE FRONT.
WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT IN GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS IT IS NOW. WHILE CLOUD
COVER KEPT TEMPERATURES TAMPED DOWN TODAY, IT WILL KEEP SOME
AREAS WARMER OVERNIGHT, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY, SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS
FROM FORMING AGAIN, AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME AS THE WEDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AREAWIDE
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MONDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL.
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE THAT HAS KEPT OUR AREA UNDER
CONSTANT CLOUDINESS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OVER A
WEEK WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
STILL, A WEAK WEDGE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NC
MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALMOST ALL CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST NC, WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MONDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
COVERAGE, DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST, CAUSING POPS TO RISE TO AROUND 30-40%. WITH CLOUD
COVER DECREASING AND THE WEDGE ERODING, AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RAIN TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL, THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
IN NC, AROUND 0.25". LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS STORMS MAY
DEVELOP.
WITH THE WEDGE HANGING ON, TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE INTO THE MID 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS WITH DAILY AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL REVERT BACK TO BE MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. A LARGE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC, AND THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE AREA,
ADVECTING MOISTURE IN AND CAUSING DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
STORMS. POPS WILL BE AROUND 40- 50% AREA-WIDE EACH DAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY MIDWEEK. BY LATE
WEEK, A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA, WITH A POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT TRYING TO MOVE IN, BUT MODELS WIDELY VARY ON THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK, ASIDE FROM A DAILY CHANCE
OF STORMS CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE PATTERN
CHANGING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. BY LATE WEEK, WIDESPREAD
80S RETURN, WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH LOW 70S FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL AREA TERMINALS, WITH CLOUDS
HAVING LIFTED ABOVE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS AND FOG RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. LIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL RETURN FOR LWB
AND BCB. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING THROUGH
TOMORROW. EXPECT VFR EVERYWHERE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE CURRENT GLOOMY WEATHER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER BEGINNING MID MORNING SATURDAY.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK, AND ALSO SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND PERHAPS
STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH
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