366
FXUS61 KRNK 090708
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN GENERAL, EXPECTING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) NO WEATHER HAZARDS ASIDE FROM MORNING FOG.
SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN
FAIR WEATHER...TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW NC HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY.
2) SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO ERODE SUNDAY. WITH THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY TREATING TO THE NORTH, AREAS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN SOUTHEAST FLOW, THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NW NC HIGH COUNTRY.
AN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WITH SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 460
CORRIDOR.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM AND HUMID.
2) DIURNAL STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WOBBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RIDGE MAY SINK A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHICH COULD ALONG A TROUGH TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZE STORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 80S WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 90S EAST.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED, THICKEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT LWB. IN GENERAL THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH RETURN OF VFR AFTER 13Z/9AM. SCT-
BKN CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 3-5KFT EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL FROM LIGHT EASTERLY WIND, OTHERWISE
MOISTURE PROFILE LACKING DEPTH.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG
AND SCT-BKN VFR CLOUD BASES IF ANY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK,
IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND PERHAPS STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
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