302
FXUS61 KRNK 091428
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1028 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN GENERAL, EXPECTING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER WHICH IS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE
AREA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND, CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA, HOWEVER THEY
MAY SCATTER OUT IN SOME AREAS AND THICKEN IN OTHERS AS THE FLOW
INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN.
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND WE SEE AREAS OF SUN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) NO WEATHER HAZARDS ASIDE FROM MORNING FOG.
SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN
FAIR WEATHER...TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW NC HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY.
2) SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO ERODE SUNDAY. WITH THE
WEDGE BOUNDARY TREATING TO THE NORTH, AREAS ALONG THE VA/NC
BORDER WILL BE VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN SOUTHEAST FLOW,
THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NW NC
HIGH COUNTRY.
AN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WITH SHOWERS AS
FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM AND HUMID.
2) DIURNAL STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WOBBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RIDGE MAY SINK A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH COULD ALONG A TROUGH TO PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZE STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 80S WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 90S EAST.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1025 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MORNING VALLEY FOG AND LOWER STRATUS HAS LIFTED AT OUR TAF SITES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. PERIODS OF SCT-
BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3-5KFT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL FROM LIGHT EASTERLY WIND, OTHERWISE
MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT IS LACKING DEPTH.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG
AND SCT-BKN VFR CLOUD BASES IF ANY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK,
IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND PERHAPS STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/SH
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