213
FXUS61 KRNK 091807
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
207 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. WARMER
WEATHER AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. EASTERLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN AN ADEQUATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS WINDS
INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN. AFTER SUNSET CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY
DISSIPATE. SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES
OR CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN RIVER AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS CONTINUING, WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. RAIN IS STILL NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL
EDGE TOWARDS NW NC.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) INCREASED MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
2) DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS
AS A WEDGE COMPLETES ITS EROSION BY MONDAY, A SUBTROPICAL GYRE
WILL THE BECOME SETTLE OVER THE DEEP SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL
POSITION US WITH PLENTY OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF
AREA. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE QUICKLY OVER THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT, AND WITHOUT THE SUPPRESSION
OF THE WEDGE, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, AS THE
DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND THIS CONVECTION WILL BE THE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO DAYTIME INSOLATION.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
WELL INTO THE 80S EAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
2) INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
CONTINUING TO SUPPLY TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY TO OUR NORTH, PROVIDING SOME DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST, IT WILL REINTENSIFY, INCREASING THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY, AND PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT INTO THE LATE WEEK.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA,
CONTINUING THE TREND OF WIDE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL CURRENTLY WITH PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BETWEEN 3-5KFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL FROM LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE, THE MOISTURE PROFILE
ALOFT IS LACKING DEPTH FOR ANY RAIN. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY WITH PATCHY MORNING
FOG AND SCT-BKN VFR CLOUD BASES.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK,
IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND PERHAPS STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH
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