811
FXUS61 KRNK 100059
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
858 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. WARMER
WEATHER AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 858 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV, BUT SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING SOON. FORECAST ON TRACK AND SHOULD SEE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. EASTERLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN AN ADEQUATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS WINDS
INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN. AFTER SUNSET CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY
DISSIPATE. SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES
OR CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN RIVER AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS CONTINUING, WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. RAIN IS STILL NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL
EDGE TOWARDS NW NC.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) INCREASED MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
2) DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS
AS A WEDGE COMPLETES ITS EROSION BY MONDAY, A SUBTROPICAL GYRE
WILL THE BECOME SETTLE OVER THE DEEP SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL
POSITION US WITH PLENTY OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF
AREA. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE QUICKLY OVER THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT, AND WITHOUT THE SUPPRESSION
OF THE WEDGE, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, AS THE
DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND THIS CONVECTION WILL BE THE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO DAYTIME INSOLATION.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
WELL INTO THE 80S EAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
2) INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
CONTINUING TO SUPPLY TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY TO OUR NORTH, PROVIDING SOME DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST, IT WILL REINTENSIFY, INCREASING THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY, AND PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT INTO THE LATE WEEK.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA,
CONTINUING THE TREND OF WIDE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 858 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ROA
WITH VLIFR AT LWB. FOG LIFTS BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WE WILL BE HEADING INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE FROM STORMS
AND FOG, EXPECT VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...SH/RNK
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...RNK
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