625
FXUS61 KRNK 100546
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. WARMER WEATHER
AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 858 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV, BUT
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. FORECAST ON TRACK AND SHOULD SEE FOG IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
EASTERLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
IN AN ADEQUATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS WINDS INTERACT WITH THE
TERRAIN. AFTER SUNSET CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE. SOME STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES OR CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS
CONTINUING, WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. RAIN IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL EDGE TOWARDS NW NC.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) INCREASED MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
2) DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS
AS A WEDGE COMPLETES ITS EROSION BY MONDAY, A SUBTROPICAL GYRE WILL
THE BECOME SETTLE OVER THE DEEP SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL POSITION
US WITH PLENTY OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF AREA. TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE QUICKLY OVER THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
WEEK. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY OF THE
ENVIRONMENT, AND WITHOUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE WEDGE, DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST, AS THE DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO
DAYTIME INSOLATION.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND WELL
INTO THE 80S EAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
2) INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
CONTINUING TO SUPPLY TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO
OUR NORTH, PROVIDING SOME DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST, IT
WILL REINTENSIFY, INCREASING THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY, AND PROVIDING
FURTHER SUPPORT INTO THE LATE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA, CONTINUING THE TREND OF WIDE AREAL COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ROA WITH VLIFR AT LWB. FOG LIFTS
BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WE WILL BE HEADING INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE FROM STORMS AND FOG, EXPECT VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...SH/RNK
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...RNK
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