181
FXUS61 KRNK 100631
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
231 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. WARMER WEATHER
AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 858 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV, BUT
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. FORECAST ON TRACK AND SHOULD SEE FOG IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
EASTERLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
IN AN ADEQUATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS WINDS INTERACT WITH THE
TERRAIN. AFTER SUNSET CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE. SOME STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES OR CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS
CONTINUING, WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. RAIN IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL EDGE TOWARDS NW NC.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW NC HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY.
2) SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
AN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE ALONG
THE VA/NC BORDER WITH SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 460
CORRIDOR. TUESDAYS CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WHILE A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM AND HUMID.
2) DIURNAL STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WOBBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RIDGE MAY SINK A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHICH COULD ALLOW A TROUGH TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
IF THIS TROUGH PASSES ON FRIDAY, A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 80S WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 90S EAST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ROA WITH VLIFR AT LWB. FOG LIFTS
BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WE WILL BE HEADING INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE FROM STORMS AND FOG, EXPECT VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...SH/RNK
SHORT TERM...RNK
LONG TERM...RNK
AVIATION...RNK
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