943
FXUS61 KRNK 100717
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER.
ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED. AS WE TRANSISTION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. AS SUCH EXPECT AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGE:
1) FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL PROMOTE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FOG, EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT, AND LOWS
TONIGHT FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. THAT SAID, SHOULD
STILL SEE A NOTICIABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE MILDER (MID 60S FOR LOWS) ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW NC HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY.
2) SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
AN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE ALONG
THE VA/NC BORDER WITH SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 460
CORRIDOR. TUESDAYS CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WHILE A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM AND HUMID.
2) DIURNAL STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WOBBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RIDGE MAY SINK A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHICH COULD ALLOW A TROUGH TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
IF THIS TROUGH PASSES ON FRIDAY, A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 80S WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO LOWER 90S EAST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ROA WITH VLIFR AT LWB. FOG LIFTS
BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WE WILL BE HEADING INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASIDE FROM STORMS AND FOG, EXPECT VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM/RS
NEAR TERM...PM/RS
SHORT TERM...RNK
LONG TERM...RNK
AVIATION...RNK
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