676
FXUS61 KRNK 101822
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
222 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY, WHEN
MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE. A
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ALSO RETURNS, BRINGING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS RETURN MONDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
3) PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST IS
CAUSING AN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO THIS, MODERATE CLOUD
COVER HAS FORMED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO THE
NC/VA MOUNTAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT STAY AROUND ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5-10
MPH, GUSTING TO NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT, THE CLEARING SKIES
EARLY ON WILL CAUSE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. THIS, ALONG WITH
WINDS ALSO REDUCING, WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM, ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS LASTING UNTIL JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY, BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NC. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM, THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW, WILL KEEP HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. AREAS
SOUTH OF US-460 WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL,
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, AS
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER 0.10", WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR TOMORROW, WITH HEAVY CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL POSITION US WITH PLENTY
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF REGION. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE QUICKLY OVER THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, STARTING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY IN THE
WEEK, AND SPREADING TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AT 500MB WILL PASS
NEAREST ON WEDNESDAY, PROMPTING THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND MOST
ORGANIZED STORMS, WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND WELL
INTO THE 80S EAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
2) INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
CONTINUING TO SUPPLY TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MORE STORMS ON DAYS WHEN A TROUGH NUDGES THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH AND PROVIDES SOME UPPER ATMOSPHERE SUPPORT
TO THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
UNDER 90, SO NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM AS PARTS OF JULY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW-END VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, AS SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THANKS TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. DAN/LWB ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH THE OTHER
TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH RESPECT TO CIGS.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, IT WILL
SLIGHTLY LESSEN, WITH CIGS RISING ENOUGH TO BE SOLIDLY IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, WITH GUSTS OF 10-15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AREA-WIDE UNTIL REDUCING OVERNIGHT.
AROUND 08-10Z MONDAY, WINDS WILL REDUCE, AND ENOUGH RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
BLF WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS, DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW, THOUGH A BRIEF FALL INTO MVFR MAY OCCUR. ROA WILL ALSO SEE
SOME FOG, WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1000 FEET. ALL OTHER
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH 13-14Z
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG. THE FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY AFTER 12Z, BUT
HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MOVED IN BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH WILL
KEEP CIGS LOW THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, DAN/LYH/BCB IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR DAN.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WHICH WOULD CAUSE BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHEN
THEY ARE OVER A TERMINAL. NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, AGAIN
POSSIBLY REDUCING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...JCB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...JCB
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