212
FXUS61 KRNK 102259
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
659 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY, WHEN
MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE. A
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ALSO RETURNS, BRINGING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
3) PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS JUST A SMALL/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A
BOONE TO YADKINVILLE LINE. APPEARS BEST MOISTURE RETURNS MONDAY.
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT
FOG OVERALL BUT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER
RIVER BASINS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST IS
CAUSING AN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO THIS, MODERATE CLOUD
COVER HAS FORMED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO THE
NC/VA MOUNTAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT STAY AROUND ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5-10
MPH, GUSTING TO NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT, THE CLEARING SKIES
EARLY ON WILL CAUSE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. THIS, ALONG WITH
WINDS ALSO REDUCING, WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM, ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS LASTING UNTIL JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY, BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NC. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM, THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW, WILL KEEP HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. AREAS
SOUTH OF US-460 WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL,
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, AS
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER 0.10", WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR TOMORROW, WITH HEAVY CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL POSITION US WITH PLENTY
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF REGION. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE QUICKLY OVER THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, STARTING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY IN THE
WEEK, AND SPREADING TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AT 500MB WILL PASS
NEAREST ON WEDNESDAY, PROMPTING THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND MOST
ORGANIZED STORMS, WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND WELL
INTO THE 80S EAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
2) INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
CONTINUING TO SUPPLY TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MORE STORMS ON DAYS WHEN A TROUGH NUDGES THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH AND PROVIDES SOME UPPER ATMOSPHERE SUPPORT
TO THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
UNDER 90, SO NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM AS PARTS OF JULY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 655 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN FOG AND POTENTIAL
LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER CIGS WITH
MVFR FOG LOOK MORE LIKELY FROM ROA EAST OVER TO LYH/DAN, WHILE
IFR TO VLIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT LWB AND MAYBE BCB IN THE 9-13Z TIME
FRAME.
ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SCT/BKN SKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 17-19Z, WITH BEST
CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TRI-DAN LINE, SO HAVE ADDED VCTS IN
AT DAN AFTER 17Z.
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT LOWER ON
HOW FAR THESE DROP IN CATEGORY. CONFIDENCE ALSO AVERAGE ON
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND IMPACT ON TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WHICH WOULD CAUSE BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHEN
THEY ARE OVER A TERMINAL. NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, AGAIN
POSSIBLY REDUCING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...JCB/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...JCB/WP
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