107
FXUS61 KRNK 110647
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
247 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY,
WHEN MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON STORMS
POSSIBLE. A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ALSO RETURNS, BRINGING BACK
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONT STALLS TO
OUR NORTH LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE THAT HAS SAT OVER THE REGION THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ERODE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS WEDGE, MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FIRST BRING
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD FADE THIS EVENING, BUT COULD SEE A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
INSTABILITIES AND PWATS ARE THE GREATEST ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN
INCH, ISOLATED STRONG SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD DROP AN INCH OF
TWO OF RAIN. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY
460, THEN ENERGY DRIFTS TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 460 INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL BE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MIDWEEK, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH, AIDING IN LIFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT WEST TO BE CENTERED NEAR
FLORIDA MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A CLOCKWISE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN CLOSER TO MIDWEEK. A COLD
FRONT ALSO APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY BUT STALLS OFF TO OUR
NORTH. A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ALONG THE EAST COAST,
AND WITH THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST, DOWNSLOPING
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, AVERAGING AROUND 0.1-0.25" FROM EAST TO WEST. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF I-77, WITH UP TO 1.0" POSSIBLE,
THOUGH ISOLATED AREAS UNDER THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION COULD SEE
HIGHER TOTALS. WPC CURRENTLY HAS PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S, HEAT INDICES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS SUMMER MAKES ITS RETURN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EACH MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON, BUT LOWERING EACH DAY.
2) NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SLIGHTLY CHANGES HEADING INTO THE LATE
WEEK, AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY MOVES WEST INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT TO
SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT, WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AND POPS AROUND 40-60%. THE
FRONT THEN DISSIPATES, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A MORE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO LIMIT RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE WEEKEND, WITH THE FLOW TURNING
MORE EASTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBSEQUENT UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR
THE NC MOUNTAINS WITH POPS AROUND 30-40%.
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE
SLIGHTLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
SUNDAY. LOWS STAY CONSISTENT EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. KLWB IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VLIFR BETWEEN
07Z-13Z, THEN BACK TO VFR AFTER 13Z. SHALLOW VALLEY FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KBCB THIS MORNING.
SATELLITES IMAGES SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG MOVING INTO THE
PIEDMONT (KDAN/KLYH) INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGESTING
THIS MOISTURE IS IFR FOG, BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATION SAYING THESE
ARE LOW CLOUDS WITH A CEILING AROUND 600-1200 FEET. THESE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN LIFT TO MVFR
OR LOW-END VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON (KDAN), THEN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS (KROA) AND
PIEDMONT (KDAN/KLYH) THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WHICH WOULD CAUSE BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WHEN THEY ARE OVER A TERMINAL. NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AGAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR
ACROSS THE AREA.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...RCS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page