997
FXUS61 KRNK 111843
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
243 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS BY MID WEEK, BRINGING
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.
2) LINGERING RAIN OVERNIGHT FOR NW NC.
3) SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, OVERCAST SKIES, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.
SURFACE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STILL COVERS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR WAS
KEEPING HEAVIER SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING INTO SE WV AND FARTHER
NORTH IN SW VA THAN COVINGTON TO APPOMATTOX.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVELING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED
TO SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAD MORE OF A STRATIFORM
NATURE, WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH DEW POINTS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT LACK OF MUCH SUN (INSTABILITY) AND
SHEAR WILL KEEP ANYTHING STRONG FROM FORMING. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.
EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES, FOG, DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT RAIN ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO WITH AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STILL NOT FORECASTING ANYTHING STRONG AS FAR AS
DAMAGING WINDS, ETC.
DEEP WARM RAIN PROCESSES, LIGHT STEERING FLOW, AND INCREASINGLY
HIGH PWATS WILL SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF MODERATE RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. WHILE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A QUARTER OF AN
INCH GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460, AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
OVER AN INCH OVER FAR SW VA AND NW NC. THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE THAN AN INCH,
ESPECIALLY ONCE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND CREATES MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RAIN, OVERCAST CLOUDS, AND PATCHY FOG HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL TODAY. INCREASING WAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TUESDAY ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT AGAIN AM WARY OF CLOUDS AND A
REPEAT OF TODAY, SO WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE WARM IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S NW TO SE ACROSS THE
AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS MODERATE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SYNOPTIC SETUP RETURNS. A SURFACE
HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
DRIVE MOISTURE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL ONLY BE INTERRUPTED BY PASSING WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THIS OCCUR,
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
ENERGY TO INSTIGATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS AS IT PASSES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED, DUE TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OF WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, LOWERING POPS
TO AROUND 20- 30% THERE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS MORE DETAILS ARE KNOWN.
STORMS DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUT BECOMES QUASI- STATIONARY.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE CAUSING ANY CONVECTION TO BE EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL,
ALONG WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN EACH DAY. QPF TOTALS FOR THE
PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH, RANGING FROM 0.10" FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
UP TO OVER 0.50" FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS ON AVERAGE. HOWEVER,
HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION, OR
WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY COULD
SEE SOME AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, LESS COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
2) NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY.
A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED, MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DUE TO THE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTION COVERAGE, WITH POPS
AROUND 30% AREA-WIDE. FOR THE WEEKEND, SIMILAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE HIGH, NOW OFFSHORE, WILL CAUSE A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW AS IT RIDGES IN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE NOW
TURNED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL CAUSE SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NC. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST
DAY, AS EVEN DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS KEEPS POPS AROUND 20%.
THE SAGGING FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT MOVING IN ON
MONDAY THAT AGAIN STALLS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL CAUSE UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, WITH A FEW LOW 90S FOR THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A NEARBY WARM FRONT WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING, BUT WILL BEGIN TO FADE TONIGHT. FOG, STRATUS,
DRIZZLE, AND THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AFTER 12/04Z, WITH LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
LIKELY AFTER 07-08Z, IMPROVING SOME AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER, MOST
TERMINALS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREE FROM MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE
18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOK MOST LIKELY FOR BLF, LWB, AND BCB WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND MVFR/MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ALONG WITH DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CAUSE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH
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