695
FXUS61 KRNK 112338
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEK, BRINGING BACK
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, AS WELL AS DAILY STORM
CHANCES..
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A STORM THIS
EVENING.
2) FOG AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT WHERE IT RAINED AND ACROSS THE
RIVER VALLEYS.
3) SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND SHOWERS/FEW STORMS.
UPDATED REFLECTED LESS THUNDER INTO TUESDAY PER CLOUDS AND LACK
OF DEEPER CONVECTION ON RADAR, DESPITE SOME SBCAPES EXCEEDING
1500 J/KG. STILL SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE INTO 9PM OVER THE
PIEDMONT.
LEANED TOWARD LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS, THEN SHOULD SEE
WANING COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY.
CLOUDS/FOG ARE LIKELY TO SETTLE IN FOR MOST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STILL COVERS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR WAS
KEEPING HEAVIER SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING INTO SE WV AND FARTHER
NORTH IN SW VA THAN COVINGTON TO APPOMATTOX.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVELING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED
TO SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAD MORE OF A STRATIFORM
NATURE, WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH DEW POINTS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT LACK OF MUCH SUN (INSTABILITY) AND
SHEAR WILL KEEP ANYTHING STRONG FROM FORMING. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.
EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES, FOG, DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT RAIN ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO WITH AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STILL NOT FORECASTING ANYTHING STRONG AS FAR AS
DAMAGING WINDS, ETC.
DEEP WARM RAIN PROCESSES, LIGHT STEERING FLOW, AND INCREASINGLY
HIGH PWATS WILL SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF MODERATE RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. WHILE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A QUARTER OF AN
INCH GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460, AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
OVER AN INCH OVER FAR SW VA AND NW NC. THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE THAN AN INCH,
ESPECIALLY ONCE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND CREATES MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RAIN, OVERCAST CLOUDS, AND PATCHY FOG HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL TODAY. INCREASING WAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TUESDAY ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT AGAIN AM WARY OF CLOUDS AND A
REPEAT OF TODAY, SO WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE WARM IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S NW TO SE ACROSS THE
AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS MODERATE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SYNOPTIC SETUP RETURNS. A SURFACE
HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
DRIVE MOISTURE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL ONLY BE INTERRUPTED BY PASSING WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THIS OCCUR,
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
ENERGY TO INSTIGATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS AS IT PASSES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED, DUE TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OF WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, LOWERING POPS
TO AROUND 20- 30% THERE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS MORE DETAILS ARE KNOWN.
STORMS DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUT BECOMES QUASI- STATIONARY.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE CAUSING ANY CONVECTION TO BE EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL,
ALONG WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN EACH DAY. QPF TOTALS FOR THE
PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH, RANGING FROM 0.10" FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
UP TO OVER 0.50" FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS ON AVERAGE. HOWEVER,
HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION, OR
WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY COULD
SEE SOME AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, LESS COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
2) NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY.
A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED, MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DUE TO THE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTION COVERAGE, WITH POPS
AROUND 30% AREA-WIDE. FOR THE WEEKEND, SIMILAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE HIGH, NOW OFFSHORE, WILL CAUSE A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW AS IT RIDGES IN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE NOW
TURNED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL CAUSE SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NC. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST
DAY, AS EVEN DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS KEEPS POPS AROUND 20%.
THE SAGGING FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT MOVING IN ON
MONDAY THAT AGAIN STALLS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL CAUSE UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, WITH A FEW LOW 90S FOR THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND BCB/ROA/DAN/LYH THIS EVENING BUT
OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR TO START, THEN DROPPING OVERNIGHT TO
MVFR/IFR FOR MOST, AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR BCB/LWB/BLF.
CEILINGS/VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE STILL NOT
WIDESPREAD, BUT ENOUGH TO HAVE VCTS/VCSH IN THE TAFS BUT VFR
OTHERWISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A FRONT APPROACHES MIDWEEK KEEPING DAILY THREAT OF STORMS AROUND
AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL, OTHERWISE VFR OUTSIDE OF THIS AND STORMS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH/WP
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