922
FXUS61 KRNK 310712
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WEDGED
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS, WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE EARLY INTO THE WEEK, WITH A COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW
MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP AS WINDS SHIFT MORE FROM
THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF SATURDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
2) WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL ONLY
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FADE TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, BUT MAY STILL
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH, WITH ANY
RAIN PROVING BENEFICIAL GIVEN AN AUGUST WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
THAT HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
ON MONDAY, A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ANCHOR
ITSELF OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. A DRY, NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION, ENSURING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER, IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SLIGHT CHANGE WILL BRING A TOUCH MORE
MOISTURE TO THE AIR, CREATING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN.
BY TUESDAY, THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE WEST, BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE, IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WARMER. THESE AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
THE UPPER 70S, AS THEY'LL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE PASSING
SYSTEM, AVOIDING THE COOLER, WETTER CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) SHOWERS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2) LOOKING COLD AND DRY NEXT WEEKEND.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN,
STRETCHING ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE MIDWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH, A SLOW-
MOVING SHORTWAVE AND A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS
WILL USHER IN A NEW WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND TO THE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE MAIN EVENT OF THE WEEK WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE FRONT'S MOMENTUM WILL THEN STALL, LIKELY
SETTLING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND REMAINING IN
PLACE INTO FRIDAY. THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.
AS WE LOOK TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A LARGE, DRY HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
FORCE THE FRONT FURTHER EAST, FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE REGION CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A RETURN TO
CLEAR SKIES AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A BEAUTIFUL AND DRY END TO THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING UNDER
SCATTERED CEILINGS WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 8KFT RANGE. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC, AND WILL ONLY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY, WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE 31/06Z TAF PERIOD.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KTS TO 15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MENTION OF
VCSH IS INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR KBLF, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION OR COVERAGE OF RAINFALL OTHERWISE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL FADE TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, BUT
MAY STILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE
EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK, THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY, AS WELL AS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF
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