536
FXUS61 KRNK 311740
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WEDGED
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS, WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE EARLY INTO THE WEEK, WITH A COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW
MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP AS WINDS SHIFTS
MORE TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CLEARING TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ENDING.
2) COOL AND DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES TODAY INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND, WITH ITS CYCLONIC INFLUENCE REACHING
TO THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK SURFACE WEDGING WAS
NOSING IN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY
LOW, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF IT COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TERRAIN AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE WEAK AND BRIEF. ENE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
UNTIL THIS EVENING, WHEN CLEARING BEGINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE ANY CONVECTION
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR
THE PIEDMONT, GIVING THIS AREA ANOTHER TASTE OF COOLER WEATHER.
LARGER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD KEEP MUCH FOG FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOL, FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST
2) QUIET AGAIN TO START THE WORKWEEK, RAIN PICKS UP WEDNESDAY
BY MONDAY, A WEDGE WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS, AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE HIGH CAUSING THE WEDGE WILL SINK SOUTH BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS SOUTHWARD WOBBLE
OUGHT TO INDUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE OVER US THAT DESPITE THE
TROUGHING, WE WON'T RECEIVE RAIN ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WEAKENING WEDGE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN CHANCES FROM WESTERN
MOUNTAINS EAST TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NORMAL TO KICK OFF
METEOROLOGICAL FALL. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID
70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK
DIRECTLY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY COMES A LARGER, WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD STORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH A SLIGHT WARM SPIKE
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW BUT
ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BEHIND IT. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CEILINGS IN THE AREA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEDGE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTED SHRA CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR AND
GENERALLY AWAY FROM LOCAL TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY, AS WELL AS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...NF/SH
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