236
FXUS61 KRNK 010613
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
STAY WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SLIDE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A MODEST
WARMUP AS WINDS SHIFT MORE FROM THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY UNDER ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.
2) AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
NO CONCERNS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE CAROLINAS.
WIND FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW COOL, DRY AIR FROM THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION. AS SUCH, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
SOME 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER, REACHING
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, INTERMIXED WITH PASSING CLOUDS. AS SUCH,
UV EXPOSURE WILL BE HIGH TODAY, AND YOU'LL WANT TO KEEP THE
SUNSCREEN HANDY IF PLANNING TO SPEND EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME
OUTDOORS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ON TUESDAY, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES, AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE AIR WILL FEEL RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WEST.
HOWEVER, A DIFFERENT STORY WILL UNFOLD FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A "WEDGE" OF COOLER, DRY, AND STABLE AIR WILL
BE IN CONTROL. THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SETUP WILL KEEP THE SKIES
MOSTLY SUNNY, CREATING A PLEASANT, DRY DAY FOR THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE, THOUGH IT WILL
HOLD ITS GROUND OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
LEADING TO SCATTERED, DIURNAL SHOWERS. THESE ARE THE CLASSIC
POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS, FUELED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S SHORTWAVE. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL FADE AWAY IN THE EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS AND THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTER AND SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY, HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE, TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THE LINGERING WEDGE OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB, REACHING THE UPPER
70S AND EVEN THE LOWER 80S IN SOME SPOTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2) STRONG FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SHIFT IN THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH.
ON THURSDAY, THIS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN,
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DAY WILL START WARM, BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS,
TRIGGERING STORMS. BY EARLY EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS, AND BY THE LATE EVENING, THEY
WILL ARRIVE IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE WARM, REACHING THE LOW TO MID-70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOW TO MID-80S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE FRONT'S PROGRESSION WILL THEN SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL CREATE A DAY-LONG PERIOD WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE COOL AIR TO THE WEST AND THE WARMER AIR TO THE EAST
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A MORE DECISIVE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER,
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CLEAR
OUT THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SIGNAL THE END OF THE UNSETTLED
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN AS THURSDAY: LOW TO MID-70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID- 80S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE CHANGE WILL BE
UNDENIABLE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED, AND A NEW,
DRY HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND CLEAR SKIES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
COVERAGE OF VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION, AND AREAS OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BASES FOR THESE CEILINGS NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC AND SOUTHERN VA WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2KFT,
BUT WILL RANGE FROM 3KFT TO 5KFT FURTHER NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY, SUSTAINING WINDFLOW FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. WINDSPEEDS AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS, THOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 8KT TO 13KT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE 15Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK, THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG, AS WELL AS WITHIN ANY LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY, AS WELL AS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF
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