555
FXUS61 KRNK 011733
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
STAY WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES EAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
A FALL-LIKE START TO METEOROLOGICAL FALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING AROUND 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS IN PART TO UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT A "DIRTY" WEDGE WE ARE
MORE FAMILIAR WITH WHERE WE HAVE LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE AND PATCHY
RAIN. THIS IS A DRY WEDGE WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU, SO
TEMPERATURES DESPITE BEING BELOW NORMAL ARE NOT WAY BELOW IF IT
WERE CLOUDY.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 50S PIEDMONT.
MOISTURE WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER TN/KY MAY SHIFT
TOWARD OUR FAR SW VA COUNTIES LATER TUESDAY BUT ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTHWEST OF THERE, WITH SOME INCREASE IN CUMULUS
FIELD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE, MAYBE APPROACHING 80
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1030 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, A WEDGE SET UP COVERING THE AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE DRIVING PARENT
HIGH MOVES ITS CENTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND OUT TO SEA. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A LARGER TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE EAST
COAST WILL PASS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A SUFFICIENT DISTURBANCE TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH NOR FAR EAST ENOUGH TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD, THOUGH HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR MORE COVERAGE EXIST IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL COME OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ENTER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AND IMPACT THE ENTIRE CWA
AT SOME POINT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT BECOMES CUT
OFF FROM ITS OCCLUDING PARENT LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WE'VE GROWN ACCUSTOMED TO IN
THE COOL AUGUST AND CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT, RANGING TO THE LOW 70S IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES OF FAR WESTERN VA AND NC.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CALM AND COOLING TEMPERATURE TREND OVER THE WEEKEND
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE MOMENTUM AS THE PARENT
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE AND BECOME SPATIALLY SEPARATED. IT WILL
FLOAT TO OUR SOUTH BY WEEKEND'S START, WHERE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REPLACE IT OVER OUR HEADS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
TAKE HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, COOLING US
DOWN SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS PERIOD, DROPPING JUST UNDER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN
WITH DRY AIRMASS. EXCEPTION WILL BE IFR TO LIFR GROUND FOG AT
LWB/BCB POSSIBLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME TUES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ALSO SOME FOG AT
LWB/BCB REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...NF/WP
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