219
FXUS61 KRNK 021136
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING
EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) MINIMAL CONCERNS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONCERNS FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THE PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A FETCH OF COOL, GENERALLY DRY AIR FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND AREA, WHICH WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS 6 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER AS THEY WARM INTO THE 70S.
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, MAY SEE
VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES, HOWEVER HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ANY WILL DEVELOP.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL FIZZLE QUICKLY AFTER 6 PM AS
SUNSET APPROACHES. ASIDE FROM THAT, PLAN FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
OCCASIONALLY INTERMIXED WITH PASSING CLOUDS.
LOOKING TO LATE TONIGHT, A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST, WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.
2) AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE RAIN WILL BE A FACTOR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD,
THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS, SPECIFICALLY IN
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT,
MAY MISS THE STORMS ENTIRELY, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID-70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST WILL
SEE WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
THE WEATHER ON THURSDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NEW SYSTEM—AN
UPPER- LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DELAYED, BEGINNING
IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF- INCH POSSIBLE, WHILE THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY SEE LESS, WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BASED ON LOCATION, WITH THE MOUNTAINS
REMAINING IN THE 70S, AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REACHING
THE MID-80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT AND STORMS ARRIVES SATURDAY.
2) DRY AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS STARTING SUNDAY.
A PERIOD OF CALMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY, THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED,
DIURNAL SHOWER TO POP UP, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MIXED BAG, WITH THE MOUNTAINS ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOW-80S, AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
EXPERIENCING A WARMER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-80S.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD, AFFECTING
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IN THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING
MID TO UPPER-70S AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER-80S, WITH A CHANCE OF EVEN HITTING 90 DEGREES IN
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK, THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG, DRY HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A STRETCH OF
BEAUTIFUL, TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND AND START TO THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...
STARTING THE MORNING WITH SHALLOW RIVER VALLEY FOG IMPACTING LWB
AND BCB. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z BEFORE BURNING
OFF. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. WINDFLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT MOST LOCATIONS AT 5KTS TO 7KTS, AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KTS. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, THOUGH THEY WILL BE
HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF IN DURATION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OR TIMING TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT THE FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF
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