686
FXUS61 KRNK 031930
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE THESE FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASED RAINFALL
CHANCES TO THE REGION, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
LIGHT AREAWIDE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 329 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A
DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WV.
CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN LIMITED WITH BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS WV
AND POINTS WEST, SO TONED BACK ON THUNDER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF WISCONSIN AND
MINNESOTA ALONG THE CANADIAN AND UNITED STATES BORDER. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHER GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS,
A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SE WEST VIRGINIA AND SW VIRGINIA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS TO BE
PRODUCED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE LINE. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR WITH ONLY ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DISCRETE AND MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES.
DCAPE VALUES IN THE 700-900 J/KG RANGE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH
ALSO TO HELP IN DEVELOPING STRONG OUTFLOWS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW,
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AS DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS
WILL LIKELY AID IN DISRUPTION OF STORM STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS OF
STORM ACTIVITY, THE PIEDMONT LOOKS TO SEE ITS WARMEST DAY IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE NRV REACHING THE UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
2) HEAT RETURNS WITH 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT, INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE POST-
SUNSET THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT INITIATED THE STORMS DIES OUT
OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORT THAT WAS IN THE AREA THURSDAY WILL DRAW BACK NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A MORE ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE SECOND FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WITH BEST COVERAGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS IT WILL BE
CLOSER IN ALIGNMENT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE LESS COVERAGE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS, BUT
SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
QPF FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT, THOUGH MOST AREAS
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. ONLY AROUND 0.10-0.25" IS EXPECTED ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, DUE TO CONVECTION MOVING AT A STEADY PACE,
UNLIKELY TO SIT OR TRAIN OVER AN AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NC/VA/WV DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY, AFTER THURSDAY EVENING, NO SEVERE WEATHER OR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE HIGHEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S/80S IN
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY, BEFORE RISING
INTO THE LOW 90S FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S/60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY.
BY SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, REDUCING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING IN
MUCH DRIER AIR FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA AND INTO
NC, WHERE MODELS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA SUNDAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AID IN LIFT, WHICH HAS CAUSED
A TREND UP IN POPS THAT AFTERNOON, DESPITE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES FINALLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WEDGES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
WEDGE WILL KEEP COOL, CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE
WEDGE FINALLY ERODES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
HIGH, AS A MORE NORTHERLY LOCATION WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES, POPS ARE KEPT LOW, AROUND 15% ON
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S/70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH 50S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BCB AND LWB. BOTH BCB AND LWB MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY; HOWEVER, THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD MIX OUT
THESE CLOUDS AND LOW FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS LOOK TO BUILD TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO ENTER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AT BLF AND LWB AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF
STORMS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. KDAN AND KLYH ARE THE LEAST LIKELY TO
RECEIVE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMPARED TO THE
OTHER TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SATURDAY, CHANGING WIND DIRECTION TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD RETURN VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT LWB AND OCCASIONALLY AT BCB.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB
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