106
FXUS61 KRNK 041416
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1016 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
CAROLINAS DURING EARLY FRIDAY, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...
POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RECENT RADAR TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LATEST UPDATE REFLECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND WEATHER FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS
MORNING. ALSO MADE MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.
AS OF 315 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THAT CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.
3) DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THEY MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR.
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG THANKS TO RESIDUAL DRY AIR
LEFT OVER FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE 3 PM TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME,
AND THEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE 6 PM TO 9 PM PERIOD.
ONLY A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THESE WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WHICH CAN BLOW DOWN
TREES AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THESE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FAST ENOUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THAT HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR OVER ANY SINGLE LOCATION. BY SUNSET, NEARLY
ALL OF THE ENERGY SUPPORTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST, AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT.
2) WHILE THIS WEEK WILL END ON A WARM NOTE, SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A
CHANGE IN PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY, BUT A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD ASSIST IN PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S TO THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY. INCREASING LIFT AND INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD SPARK THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN NOTABLY
COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
CONFINE ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO USHER A COOL AND
DRY PATTERN FOR THE NEW WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BRING A COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE PATTERN COMBINED WITH A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. SOME MODELS DEPICT THAT
THIS COOL AND DRY TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 13Z.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE 15Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME, AND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE PERIOD OF 20Z TO 05/01Z. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM. CEILINGS MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA, THOUGH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL
BRING A MORE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION, RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...EB/NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF
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