195
FXUS61 KRNK 302315
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF CANADA LOOKS TO BECOME ANCHORED
INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
FOR THE REGION. EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) EARLY MORNING FOG WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DRYING UP. CLEARING SKIES STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHICH MAY SET UP SOME FOG ISSUES IN THE
VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IT'S PROGRESS TOWARDS
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THIS, LOWER PWAT AIR GENERALLY
UNDER 1.0 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRONT
THE NORTHEAST AS A TYPICALLY WEDGE LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO EARLY MORNING
FOG AND LOW STRATUS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE; HOWEVER, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AREAWIDE BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE, WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME UPPER 60S HANG AROUND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP A LITTLE BY THURSDAY DUE TO A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE.
A CRISP, EARLY AUTUMN AIR MASS WILL DESCEND UPON THE REGION AS A
SIGNIFICANT HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER.
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE HIGH, A PERSISTENT, COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE DIRECTED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. THIS COOL, DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL SUPPRESS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA.
ON THURSDAY, THE HIGH-PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK CLOSER, MOVING
DIRECTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST, CONTINUING THE TREND OF REFRESHING, LOW-HUMIDITY AIR.
EXPECT BRIGHT, SUNNY DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE PLEASANT PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH-PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THE AIR FLOW WILL STILL BE
PULLING FROM THE NORTHEAST, ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF COOL, DRY, AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AND WARMER AIR
POTENTIALLY RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONDITIONS STAY DRY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT SOME
MOISTURE MIGHT RETURN BY MONDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER DRY WEATHER, DOMINATED
BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ENSURING CLEAR SKIES AND PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCES
FOR RAIN. UNDER THIS FAIR-WEATHER INFLUENCE, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
A STEADY WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
THE AREA.
AS WE LOOK TO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT, MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON MONDAY.
THIS TRANSITION WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. CONSEQUENTLY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 710 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT VFR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY MVFR CIG WITH LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD BLF.
LATER TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES MAY LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER FOG AT
LWB AND PERHAPS BCB, WITH MVFR FOG AT BLF.
VFR WEDNESDAY AFTER ANY FOG EROSION BY 12-14Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, AND MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS
TO 15-20KTS AT LYH WED AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR INTO THE
WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF MORNING PATCHY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG/EB/WP
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