163
FXUS61 KRNK 011804
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
204 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL COMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRYING TREND BEGINS.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. LOOKING
AT DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT, AND BACK INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
2. TRENDING WARMER EACH DAY.
THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT AND DRY SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
A POWERFUL HIGH-PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIVE A FLOW
OF COOL, DRY AIR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRETCH ITS INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
FRIDAY WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS INITIAL COOL INTRUSION. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BROUGHT BY THE DRY AIR, THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH,
RESULTING IN NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD.
THE CONTINUED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR MAXIMUM SOLAR HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM UP QUICKLY, OVERWHELMING
THE COOL SURFACE FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, WITH ALL PARTS OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING A
BEAUTIFUL, SUN-DRENCHED, AND UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES TREND WARM EACH DAY.
3. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.
THE TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, COURTESY OF A LINGERING HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE, GUARANTEEING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED, LEADING TO HIGHS THAT ARE
NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL, RANGING FROM 5F TO 8F ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANTLY MILD CONTINUATION OF
THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS GEORGIA AND
TENNESSEE. THIS INFLUX OF HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
FINALLY, A DISTINCT CHANGE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND MARKING THE END OF THE DRY, WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
STRETCH.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A BKN MVFR CLOUD LAYER JUST EAST OF KDAN. THIS
MAY PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING AT SUNSET.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS SUBSIDE AT SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR INTO THE
WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF MORNING PATCHY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
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