535
FXUS61 KRNK 020604
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
204 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL COMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DRY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS WARM DAYTIME HIGHS AND CHILLY LOWS
OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING. LOW
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PLEASANT, DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL, DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
WEDGING AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. BROAD RIDGING AT
500MB COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US ALSO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL DRIVE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP, TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE WEST
AND UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES TICK UPWARD THROUGH TUESDAY, COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN.
THE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY START TO SLIDE EAST AND
OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST BY MONDAY, SURFACE FLOW TURNING MORE
EASTERLY. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION GIVEN THIS RETURN
FLOW, AND WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. COULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND NORTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ALSO AS A RESULT OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL START GIVING WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US, WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE EAST. TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AT THIS TIME, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS, IN THE LOW 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS, IN THE UPPER
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS BEING BRIEF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AROUND
DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST WINDS TODAY, BECOMING CALM
AGAIN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR INTO THE
WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF MORNING PATCHY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG
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