206
FXUS61 KRNK 021716
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
116 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FALL PERFECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, FEATURING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME RIVER FOG
AT NIGHT AND DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS,
BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT PRIME WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR PLANS.
REFRESHINGLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S. MILD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE DRY, TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE DAILY TEMPERATURE SWING.
ON SATURDAY, A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA, GUARANTEEING A DAY OF FAIR WEATHER. THE HIGH
PRESSURE’S INFLUENCE WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER, THE
ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM QUICKLY, RESULTING IN A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH-PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE,
MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CREEP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL AGAIN
LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT IN THE 40S, BUT WITH THE CONTINUED SUNSHINE,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SLOW TRANSITION FROM DRY,
WARM CONDITIONS TO A MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT, FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHING
COOLDOWN.
ON MONDAY, THE WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM
POSITIONED OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL PUMP MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY,
GRADUALLY SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSING INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE RETREAT EVEN FURTHER OUT TO SEA,
STRENGTHENING THE RETURN FLOW OF MOIST AIR. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES, WHICH WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE RISING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, WITH HIGHS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY RANGING IN THE 70S,
AND POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.
THE MAJOR CHANGE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS, AND ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THIS RAIN EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE BENEFICIAL, WITH PRELIMINARY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH.
A DISTINCT AUTUMN FEEL WILL TAKE OVER BY THURSDAY. A COOL, DRY HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT,
COMPLETELY SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES
NOTICEABLY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE 60S,
MAKING FOR A CRISP AND CLEAR DAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHICH MAY IMPACT TERMINALS NEAR THE RIVERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY HAZARD, IF ANY, WOULD BE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT
FOG. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z/9AM.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
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