377
FXUS61 KRNK 031033
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
WHILE A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY AND SEASONAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNINGS, OTHERWISE
MAINLY SUNNY OUTSIDE SOME CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER.
2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR ZERO, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT FALL WEATHER. WITH A DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE, EXPECTING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWS 50S IN THE EAST, BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO THE LOW 70S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND, TURNING
WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY, ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. WITH THAT, SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
HUMIDITY. THE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2. DRY CONDITIONS AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEK.
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE REGION WILL FINALLY BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH
THE 500MB RIDGE BEING SLOWLY PUSHED EAST BY AN ADVANCING TROUGH FROM
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN US DOESN'T
COMPLETELY ERODE WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT MORE SO
FLATTENS, BEFORE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
DISAGREES ON THE EXACT TIMING. NONETHELESS, THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE IN RECENT DAYS OF A MORE WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 48 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.5" BY
THURSDAY MORNING ARE HIGHEST GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, RANGING FROM 30% TO 40%.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER,
BRINGING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT
PATTERN FROM THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND WEDGING DOWN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPT IS IFR OR LOWER VSBY WITH
FOG AT LWB/BCB IN THE 12-13Z TIME FRAME AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
FROM 09-12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SO LONG AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES OUR AIRSPACE, A REPEATED
PATTERN OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY CONDITIONS GET. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...WP
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