385
FXUS61 KRNK 031809
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
WHILE A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY AND SEASONAL.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. ASIDE FROM LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER FOG, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR.
DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT, POSSIBLY THE UPPER 30S WITHIN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES: THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH PROVIDED DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS, WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF ITS RETREAT, BUT ITS LINGERING INFLUENCE
WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE REGION DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW 50S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE COMFORTABLE, SETTLING INTO THE 70S.
BY MONDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FURTHER AWAY, POSITIONED WELL
OFFSHORE AND LOSING ITS INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT, THE WIND PATTERN
WILL SHIFT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, WHICH WILL BE
NOTICEABLE THROUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS,
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: THE WEEK AHEAD PROMISES A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND.
ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW APPROACH TOWARD THE
REGION. THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS, WHICH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY WILL REMAIN MILD, SETTLING IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A POCKET OF
LINGERING DRY AIR, WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION IT CAN PRODUCE. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AIR PUSH.
THE FRONT'S FORWARD MOMENTUM IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL. ON THURSDAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT OVER THE CAROLINAS, BUT IT WILL LEAVE
BEHIND A SHIELD OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO DROP.
A DEFINITIVE CHANGE TO CLEAR, COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AS A
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE STALLED FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, COMPLSO LONG AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES OUR AIRSPACE, A REPEATED
PATTERN OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY CONDITIONS GET. ETELY CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND
USHERING IN CRISP, DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
EXPECTED TO BE NOTABLY COOLER, SETTLING INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER VSBY NEAR LWB/BCB BECAUSE OF LATE NIGHT
FOG FORMATION ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVERS. IMPACTS
MAINLY DURING THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WEATHER
PATTERN WITH WARM SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS. IN GENERAL,
EXPECTING VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING RIVER FOG VCNTY OF LWB/BCB.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
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