827
FXUS61 KRNK 032300
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
700 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
WHILE A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS,
CLEAR SKIES, AND DWINDLING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE,EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER-WISE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY AND SEASONAL.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. ASIDE FROM LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER FOG, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR.
DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT, POSSIBLY THE UPPER 30S WITHIN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES: THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH PROVIDED DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS, WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF ITS RETREAT, BUT ITS LINGERING
INFLUENCE WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE REGION DRY WITH FAIR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW 50S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COMFORTABLE, SETTLING INTO
THE 70S.
BY MONDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FURTHER AWAY, POSITIONED
WELL OFFSHORE AND LOSING ITS INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT, THE WIND
PATTERN WILL SHIFT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE, WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE THROUGH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: THE WEEK AHEAD PROMISES A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND.
ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW APPROACH TOWARD THE
REGION. THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS,
WHICH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL REMAIN MILD, SETTLING IN THE
70S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A POCKET OF
LINGERING DRY AIR, WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION IT CAN PRODUCE. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AIR
PUSH.
THE FRONT'S FORWARD MOMENTUM IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL. ON
THURSDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT OVER THE CAROLINAS,
BUT IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A SHIELD OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO DROP.
A DEFINITIVE CHANGE TO CLEAR, COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE STALLED FRONT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH, COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND USHERING IN CRISP,
DRY CONDITIONS. SO LONG AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES OUR
AIRSPACE, A REPEATED PATTERN OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT
FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE
LIMITED DEPENDING ON HOW DRY CONDITIONS GET. THIS COOLDOWN WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE NOTABLY COOLER, SETTLING INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER VSBY NEAR LWB/BCB BECAUSE OF LATE NIGHT
FOG FORMATION ALONG THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVERS. IMPACTS
MAINLY DURING THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WEATHER
PATTERN WITH WARM SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS. IN GENERAL,
EXPECTING VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING RIVER FOG VCNTY OF LWB/BCB.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/SH
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