119
FXUS61 KRNK 040525
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
125 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
WHILE A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN THIS MORNING AND
SOME RURAL AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY SUNNY WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. TONIGHT, SAME SETUP, WITH
LIMITED FOG AS WE CONTINUE DRY OUT WITH ANY FOG CONFINED NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. LOWS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND OUTLYING RURAL AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT WITH LOWER 50S IN URBAN
AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY, TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTH, THE RETURN FLOW
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. RIDGING AT 500MB ALONG WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY AND CLEAR, BUT
WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY, SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BUMP UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION, THOUGH REMNANT DRY AIR IN
THE VICINITY WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, UP TO ABOUT HALF AN
INCH IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER PRECEDING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CURRENT
FORECASTED QPF, ANY FLOODING THREAT WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH UPPER
70S IN THE EAST, AND MID 70S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND
MORE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS, IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SUNDAY NIGHT, TO LOW 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
2. DRY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY, KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY, BUT NOT EXPECTED ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER, A TRUE FALL AIRMASS, AND
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE TO END THE
WEEK, AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THE PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND
FRIDAY MORNING MAY FEEL DOWNRIGHT CHILLY, AS WIND CHILLS DIP INTO
THE 30S IN THE WEST.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER VSBY NEAR LWB/BCB AND PERHAPS DAN DURING
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL,
EXPECTING VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING RIVER FOG VCNTY OF LWB/BCB.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM/SH/WP
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