378
FXUS61 KRNK 051025
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
625 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 108 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. BASICALLY LOOKING AT FAIR
WEATHER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S. EXPECT FOG FORMATION AGAIN
THIS MORNING, MAINLY WITHIN THE NEW, GREENBRIER, AND UPPER
JAMES RIVER BASINS, AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
RISING COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.
2. MONDAY STAYS DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER PATTERN LATELY
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MONDAY, AND THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION OF THE US. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL
STAY OVER THE AREA, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, THOUGH WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH
THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC VIA THE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD, AND SO MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THROUGH TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TRANSPORT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
PRE-FRONTAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST,
BUT WILL WANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, SIMILAR TO MONDAY, HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60, BUT COOLER AIR ENTERS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MIDWEEK, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER.
2. TEMPERATURES START TRENDING WARMER SATURDAY.
BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER AIR. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY, AND
SO MAY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE, AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BY THAT TIME, AND WHETHER IT CAN
PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WHICH COULD PROMPT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE WEST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE BIGGER STORY AFTER THIS FRONT IS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
THAT WILL REACH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK, DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S, AND LOWS INTO THE 40S FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL US EXPANDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 620 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AVIATION WEATHER REMAINS IDEAL ASIDE FROM SOME IFR OR LOWER FOG
TIL 13Z TIME FRAME AND AGAIN AFTER 09Z/MON MAINLY AT LWB/BCB.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE = HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL,
EXPECTING VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING RIVER FOG VCNTY OF LWB/BCB.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED INTO THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, VFR OUTSIDE ANY SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF BLF/BCB.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...EB/PM/WP
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