573
FXUS61 KRNK 051756
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
156 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY WEATHER. WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. BASICALLY LOOKING AT FAIR
WEATHER WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, SO LOOK FOR MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITY AS A RESULT. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE NEW,
GREENBRIER, AND UPPER JAMES RIVER BASINS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE DRY HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SURGE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GENERATE PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WHICH WILL FIRST ARRIVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD,
REACHING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
DESPITE THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
WARM, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT ITSELF PUSH SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, EXITING THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL
SHOULD GENERALLY TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT COULD SEE UP
TO HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE PASSING FRONT WILL
BRING IN COOLER AIR, ESTABLISHING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
ACROSS THE REGION: HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, SETTLING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT THE WARMER AIR
LINGERING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE WEEK'S WEATHER STORY WILL BE ONE OF A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN
FOLLOWED BY A COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND THAT THE
REGION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LARGELY AVOID.
A STRONG SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF
POWERFUL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL ESTABLISH A
SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL USHER IN A
DEFINITIVELY COOL AIRMASS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION SETTLING INTO THE 60S ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER THE
CAROLINAS, HELPING TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD, REMAINING A
PRIMARILY COASTAL THREAT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTLINES.
LOOKING INTO THE NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WEATHER MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FURTHER, BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND GEORGIA REGION. ORDINARILY, A LOW THIS CLOSE COULD
DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
OVER THE AREA, THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED FROM
PULLING SIGNIFICANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. AT THIS TIME, MODELS REMAIN OPTIMISTIC FOR A DRY WEEKEND,
SUGGESTING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL NEXT MONDAY.
THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THE COOLER, DRIER INFLUENCE:
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AVIATION WEATHER REMAINS GOOD ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL IFR OR LOWER
VSBY DUE TO FOG AT LWB/BCB MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS
BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, SO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
FOR MVFR CLOUD LAYER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, SW OF
BCB/ROA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM
TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE = HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL,
EXPECTING VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING RIVER FOG VCNTY OF LWB/BCB, AND SOME INCREASING MVFR
CLOUD BASE SW OF ROA.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED INTO THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF BLF/BCB.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
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