053
FXUS61 KRNK 061812
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
212 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WHILE A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
2. INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, FLOW HAS SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHERLY COINCIDING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST. TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. ANY RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ALSO INCREASE,
THUS SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAIN BULK OF
THE RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT SKY COVERAGE. MORE
CLOUDS WILL REDUCE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS BASICALLY A KATAFRONT WHERE MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO DRYING CONDITIONS AFTER ITS PASSAGE. THE
BIGGEST THING IT HAS GOING FOR IT WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE IS A
SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE EJECTING NORTH FROM THE GULF THAT WILL GET
DRAWN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL MAKE THE SHOWERS MORE RAIN EFFICIENT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS THE FRONT
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAXIMIZE THE QPF. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS NW OF LEWISBURG WV AND
INTO FAR WESTERN VA NEAR TAZEWELL. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT THE RAIN FOOTPRINT TO FADE, BUT STILL THINKING A
GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.50 IS POSSIBLE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE RAIN
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT, MAKING WAY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER AIR.
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MUCH COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES, FEELING
MORE LIKE AUTUMN. THE SECOND NIGHT AFTER A STRONG AUTUMN FRONT IS
THE TIME YOU TYPICALLY LOOK FOR YOUR FIRST FROST...AND THURSDAY
NIGHT IS WORTH MONITORING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S, SO IF
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THE WINDS GO CALM, THE ENVIRONMENT IS CLOSE TO
PRIME FOR SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST AND PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2. DRY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
3. CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE EAST SAT/SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...
WEDGING ITSELF SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER GEORGIA
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
COMBINATION WILL MAINTAIN A COOL, BUT SEASONAL NORTHEAST WIND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER DEPENDING
ON WHERE YOU LIVE WITHIN THE CWA.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING,
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE
60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL AS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. THINKING LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S, BUT
30S STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
WHERE CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AS PREVALENT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: NAIL BITER OF A STORM SYSTEM. ATTM THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO EASTERN VA/NC, WITH A
CHANCE THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS AS FAR
WEST AS HIGHWAY 29. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT RAIN, THE CLOUD ENVELOPE
AROUND THE STORM MAY GET PUSHED BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE, SO NOT SURE HOW SUNNY VS. CLOUDY IT WILL BE THIS WEEKEND.
WITH SUNSHINE IN QUESTION, THIS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES TO THE
POINT THAT WE REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET ANY WARMER THAN THE 60S EACH DAY. THIS IS NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, BUT IF WE GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A STIFF NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE WITH THE WIND CREATING A CHILL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING BKN/OVC. WINDS TODAY LIGHT, LESS THAN 10KTS FROM THE
SOUTH. CALM OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOMORROW WITH A
FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 10KTS BY LATE IN THE VALID 24HR TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT SUB-VFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REACHING THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS
COULD LIMIT VSBYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR FOR
THU-FRI.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...BMG
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