499
FNUS71 KRNK 062006
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR SLATE RIVER MILL RX...VDOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0000 EDT ON OCTOBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA, WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WHILE WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM AT AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS IN THE MORNING,
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
10-15 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD DISPERSIONS, ESPECIALLY SINCE MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALSO LEAD TO MINIMUM
RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 60% DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF PEAK
MIXING. RAIN CHANCES FROM THE INCOMING FRONT DON'T LOOK TO IMPACT
THE BURN LOCATION UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. OVERALL, THERE ARE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED; HOWEVER,
RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT ANY FIRE SHOULDN'T GET OUT OF
HAND.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1800 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............8.
ADI.................2.
TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
SKY (%).........4 5 9 7 19 24
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 60 59 58 58 57
RH..............91 94 98 100 99 100
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5
LVORI...........6 6 9 9 9 9
ADI.............2 2 2 2 2 2
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 2 2 2 2 2
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (63600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................2 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 75 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
SKY (%).........19 20 28 28 31 36 36 57 48 43 49 52
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
TEMP............57 57 58 62 68 72 75 77 79 80 80 79
RH..............100 99 100 100 87 78 72 67 64 60 60 62
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 8 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.6 3.8
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..5 3 5 7 10 14 15 15 15 16 16 15
LVORI...........10 9 9 8 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............2 4 5 8 21 44 60 75 60 63 63 40
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 2 2 6 16 35 49 63 69 73 73 56
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (21000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (1500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................2 TO 23.
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
SKY (%).........57 63 68 76 80 83 85 86 88 92 95 99
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 40 40 40 40 40 40 80 80 80 80
TEMP............78 75 71 70 69 68 68 67 67 67 67 67
RH..............65 71 79 84 87 88 90 93 95 96 97 97
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..12 8 5 3 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 5
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8
ADI.............23 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.24 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
FORECASTER...BUNKER
REQUESTED BY...HC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523050.0/RNK
.DELDT 10/06/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL HARLEE.CRADDOCK@DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV,RICHARD.BURGESS@DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV
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