338
FXUS61 KRNK 221055
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
655 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES, AND LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES AWAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS OUR REGION, MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 650 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS WITH THE
RECENT FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATION DATA AS WIND
GUSTS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THIS MORNING THAN FORECAST GUIDANCE PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED.
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
2) THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND DRY LEAVES
& BRUSH MAY CAUSE ANY FIRES TODAY TO BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY EVENING'S COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, WHILE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID-
ATLANTIC'S PROXIMITY BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST, WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 25 MPH TO LOCALLY 35 MPH ALREADY OBSERVED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO CARRY MUCH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH HAVE MADE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY, THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS, WITH
GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 MPH TO LOCALLY 40 MPH. HIGHER RIDGES ARE
STARTING THE MORNING WITH THESE GUSTS IN PLACE, AND THE
STRONGER GUSTS WILL WORK THEIR IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA
BY LATE MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR WILL ALSO MAKE FOR LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY, RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN
SOME AREAS.
BETWEEN THE WINDS AND DRY AIR TODAY, AS WELL AS THE RECENT LACK
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAS ALLOWED FALLEN LEAVES
AND BRUSH TO BECOME DRY, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANY FIRES
HAPPENING TODAY COULD BURN OUT OF CONTROL. PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO
AVOID BURNING TODAY, AND TO USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN WORKING
OUTDOORS WITH EQUIPMENT OR MATERIALS THAT MAY CAUSE SPARKS.
FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4
TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH THE WINDS
MAKING THE AIR FEEL UP TO 7 DEGREES COOLER STILL. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, TO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) THE GUSTY WEST WIND WILL GRADUALLY FADE AFTER THURSDAY, AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST COULD IMPACT THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GUSTY WEST WIND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY DUE TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SHOULD PERMIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TOWARDS THE
FREEZING MARK BY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE WIDESPREAD FROST COULD
EFFECTIVELY END THE 2025 GROWING SEASON IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY, BUT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IS CONSIDERABLY LARGE AT THIS TIME.
2) TEMPERATURES COULD STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DRIFT TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AN EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK. MODEL DISCREPANCY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY AS THEY
STRUGGLE TO DEPICT WHERE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME MOISTURE
COULD APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY WARD OFF SOME OF THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE. REGARDLESS, THE CONSENSUS IN OVERALL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT FOR A GRADUALLY RISING CHANCE OF CLOUDS
AND RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES STILL KEPT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT FOR ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
22/12Z TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME AIRPORTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE ALREADY
OBSERVING 20KT TO 25KT GUSTS, WHILE OTHERS REMAIN DECOUPLED
FROM THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. FOR THOSE LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY 14Z-15Z, AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
22Z-23Z BEFORE DECOUPLING AGAIN TO 10KTS OR LESS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR KBCB, KBLF, AND
KLWB. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF
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