865
FXUS61 KRNK 221825
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
DANGER AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MANY
COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
2) THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND DRY LEAVES
& BRUSH MAY CAUSE ANY FIRES THURSDAY TO BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
30-40 KNOT 850MB JET WILL LEAD TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25
MPH COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20%
RANGE IN THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE
DANGER. ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED
LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRES. THESE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO A WEDGE IN PLACE.
3) FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
THE LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH ORIGINS IN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS DOWN
INTO THE OHIO-VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, FURTHER
ENFORCING DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST,
WITH RIDGING MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO WEDGE DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
DUE TO THESE SUBTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY, IN THE 50S/60S. ON
FRIDAY, SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL, IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S. SOME AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL POSSIBLY SEE
THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING,
THIS HAS PROMPTED A FREEZE WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN THEIR FIRST
FROST/FREEZE OF THE SEASON YET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURNING MONDAY.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS THE WEDGE HOLDS FIRM.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER QUIET AND DRY WEATHER DAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN INTO OUR
AREA, KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO FORM, WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. STARTING MONDAY,
MODELS DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. THERE WILL BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON WHERE THIS LOW HEADS, AND
IF THERE WILL BE A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, OR A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. NONETHELESS, RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE HEADING FOR LATE
MONDAY, BUT WITH THE LARGE DISCREPANCY, POPS ARE KEPT AROUND 20-30%,
INCREASING TO NEAR 40% LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL NEXT WEEK REMAINS
LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON SUNDAY, WITH AREA-
WIDE 50S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
HEAVY CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT COLD THANKS TO THE
CLOUD COVER, IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT FOR ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND ON
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN WESTERLY AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO REACH THE 20-25 KNOT THRESHOLD
AT MANY LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR KBCB, KBLF, AND
KLWB. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ007-009>020-024.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ042>044.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB
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