206
FXUS61 KRNK 230658
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION, AND WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY WINDS FROM THE WEST, AS WELL AS DRY AIR
THAT WILL MAKE FOR SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND, WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING RAINFALL TO THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND DRY LEAVES
& BRUSH TODAY MAY CAUSE ANY FIRES TO BURN OUT OF CONTROL.
2) TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID
30S, LIKELY KILLING ANY VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO THE COLD.
STARTING THE DAY OFF WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST
IN THE 15 MPH TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING, WHICH ARE HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS
FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL GUST FROM 25 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER
PROMINENT RIDGES ACROSS OUR AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE MORE
ESTABLISHED TODAY, ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL INTO THE
20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE FACTORS, WHEN COMBINED
WITH DRY FALLEN LEAVES AND DEAD BRUSH, THAT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRES BURNING OUT OF CONTROL. AS SUCH, FOLKS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA ARE ADVISED TO AVOID BURNING TODAY, AND TO USE EXTRA
CAUTION WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS WITH EQUIPMENT OR MATERIALS THAT
MAY CAUSE SPARKS.
LOOKING TO TONIGHT, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH BY SUNSET, WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT THREATEN TO DAMAGE OR KILL VEGETATION THAT IS
SENSITIVE TO THE COLD. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES, WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING.
2) CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE STARTING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
FROST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO CONTINUE THIS RECENT STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT, IT WILL BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND FROST BUT WITH NOTABLY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
MORE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN LATER UPDATES. THE 2025 GROWING
SEASON MAY OFFICIALLY END FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA,
VIRGINIA, AND WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DURING LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SITUATION
SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THAT MOISTURE WILL
HAVE TO BATTLE AGAINST A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES MEANINGFULLY RISE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CHANCES OF RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER DUE
TO A WEDGE OFFERING A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.
WITH A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED
AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW THE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HELPING
THE CAUSE TO PROMOTE MORE RAINFALL WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CARVING OUT A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE NOTABLE CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
THE COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT FOR ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS
THROUGHOUT THE 23/06Z TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 15KTS TO
LOCALLY 30KTS, WHILE GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HAVE FALLEN TO
LESS THAN 10KTS THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING, EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO THE 20KT TO LOCALLY 35KT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES MORE ACROSS THE
REGION, AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO HOLD LESS THAN 10KTS FROM SUNSET
THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
024.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022-023-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ003-019-020.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF
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