015
FXUS61 KRNK 232310
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SETTLE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TWO CHANCES OF NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN GULF SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH THROUGH
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1) TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MID 30S, LIKELY KILLING ANY VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO THE COLD.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, FREEZE AND
FROST WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT, WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN EFFECT. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING HAD PWATS
LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES, WHICH IS A TRADEMARK SIGN OF IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. PWATS LOOK TO TICK UP OR STAY
STEADY TONIGHT UNDER A VERY LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.
FRIDAY WILL BE A TYPICAL FALL DAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
WINDS, AND LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MID 30S, LIKELY KILLING ANY VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO THE COLD.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY START OFF AS ONE OF THE COLDEST THUS
FAR THIS FALL, WITH MANY WAKING UP TO TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GIVEN THESE
TEMPERATURES, AND THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON NOT OFFICIALLY
ENDING FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL OCTOBER 25TH AND
NOVEMBER 5TH FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, FREEZE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND FROST
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE CAUSED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DE-
COUPLE AREAWIDE, AND TO CRASH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING,
FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE TYPICAL FALL DAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS, AND LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY
MORNING.
2) CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE STARTING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE SHIFT, BEGINNING WITH A DEFINITIVE, SEASON-ENDING FREEZE
AND ENDING WITH A RETURN TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A SURGE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA, AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR, CALM
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES IS THE PERFECT COMBINATION FOR RADIATIVE
COOLING, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A HARD FREEZE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING INTO
THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT COLD, WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S, RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD FROST. THESE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OFFICIALLY END THE GROWING SEASON
FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA, IF IT HASN'T CONCLUDED TONIGHT.
BY SATURDAY, THE HIGH-PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE AREA,
AND A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA
ON SUNDAY. THIS SETUP WILL INITIATE ISENTROPIC LIFT, A PROCESS WHERE
AIR IS FORCED UPWARD ALONG A SLOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, CAUSING CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AND
SUPPRESSED, RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO THE LOWER 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE WEATHER WILL TAKE ANOTHER TURN ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GREATLY INCREASE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, HELPING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATER, WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, SIGNALING A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CHANCES OF RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER DUE TO A
WEDGE OFFERING A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED, WET, AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COLD SPELL, DRIVEN BY THE PERSISTENT INTERACTION OF
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
STARTING MONDAY, A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COMPOUNDING THIS, A STUBBORN HIGH-PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION.
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE STALLED TROUGH,
MOISTURE WILL BE CONSTANTLY LIFTED OVER THIS SHALLOW DOME OF COLD,
DENSE AIR. THIS WILL INITIATE A LENGTHY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION.
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CONTINUOUS RAIN FALLING INTO THE COLD WEDGE AIR
WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RUN 15F TO 20F COLDER THAN NORMAL, WITH THE
DAILY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE (DIURNAL RANGE) BEING A NARROW 5F TO 8F
DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AND PROLONGED DUE TO THE OVERRUNNING SETUP.
TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD APPROACH AN INCH,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
WEDGE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. IF THE RAIN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY, AN
ADDITIONAL TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PIVOT ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH. THIS LOW
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BECOMING A FORMIDABLE NOR'EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, WHICH WILL FINALLY PULL THE LOW-LEVEL WEDGE OUT OF OUR REGION
AND END THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A MOMENTARY BUMP UP
AS THE WEDGE ERODES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT A SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY WILL USHER IN A RENEWED WAVE OF COOLER AIR.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS
AREAWIDE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST, AND WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY; HOWEVER, WITH THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG 40-50KT 850MB
WESTERLY JET, WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS
THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS DO
LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS; HOWEVER,
THIS IS MUCH REDUCED COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON'S WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
024.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022-023-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB
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