749
FXUS61 KRNK 241410
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARRIVE
MONDAY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY AS WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
FROST FREEZE PROGRAM LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE UNTIL NOVEMBER 5TH WHERE IT WILL BE ENDED WHETHER
FROST OR FREEZE OCCURS PRIOR TO THIS DATE OR NOT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGE:
1. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING COLD OVERNIGHTS AND MILD
DAYTIME HIGHS.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN WILL ALLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE 30S WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION. STILL A WIDE VARIATION OF TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR,
BUT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY
INTO THE LOW 30S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORE AREAS DECOUPLE
RESULTING IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
WINDS LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, BUT COULD STILL
BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING. TEMPERATURES
FALL QUICKLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING
THOSE THIS MORNING AND LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES PLAY OUT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
2) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ON SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WEDGE AGAINST
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL START TO
PROMOTE A COOL AND MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD JUMP
NOTABLY BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP LOWER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, A COOL AND MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY HEADS OFF THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY, THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BRIEFLY
CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. THIS UNSETTLED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING RAINFALL. BY
THURSDAY, THE RAIN MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES EASTWARD.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 625 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WINDS LIGHT/CALM THIS MORNING BECOME
A BIT MORE GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT/CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE CURRENT 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS, AND SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUB-VFR
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG
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