284
FXUS61 KRNK 242351
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THROUGH MID-WEEK, A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. A
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY STILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 2AM
EDT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9AM EDT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF CIRRUS WHICH PASS ACROSS THE REGION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, WIND SPEED/GUSTS, AND SKY COVER TO
BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TONIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TODAY, AND
REMAINING SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE REGION WILL AGAIN
SEE WIDESPREAD NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LAST NIGHT'S
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ENDED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THESE AREAS, BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DID NOT OCCUR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO END THE AFOREMENTIONED PROGRAM. GIVEN THIS,
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF STATES MARCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID 50S TO LOW
60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE
FOR THE PIEDMONT, EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET FALL DAY
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND.
2) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BRING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION FROM A
BRIEF WEEKEND REPRIEVE TO A COLD, DREARY, AND RAINY MONDAY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE REGION WILL SIT UNDER A COMPLEX
SETUP: A SHALLOW DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHILE A WARM FRONT ALOFT, CAUGHT IN THE ZONAL
STEERING CURRENTS, STALLS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM
THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN SHARPLY WET AND COLD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM TAKES HOLD. AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TRACKING TOWARD THE MIDWEST, SENDING A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN WILL
ENTER THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING AND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE HIGHWAY 460
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL BE THE CORE OF THE COLD, WET WEATHER. THE OVERALL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINATION WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW, CAUSING THE RAIN INTENSITY TO INCREASE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER AND EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH, BUT THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TOTALS OF POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
THIS CONTINUOUS RAIN FALLING INTO THE COLD, SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL
MAKE FOR A RAW, CHILLY DAY. MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
WELL BELOW NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW 50S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT COLD AND RAIN
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP RETURN TO DRY, AUTUMN CONDITIONS, THOUGH
FORECASTERS FACE CHALLENGES WITH SYSTEM TRACKING.
ON TUESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL WEDGE
MAY BEGIN ERODING, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALOFT TRACKS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA, MAINTAINING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC GLIDE AND MOISTURE FOR
CONTINUED RAIN AND COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK AT FRIGID
LEVELS FOR THE SEASON: 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW 50S IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL, HOWEVER, MAY
BEGIN TO WANE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MID-WEEK FORECAST PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT SYSTEM TRACK. CURRENT MODELS ARE
TRACKING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PULL OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FINAL EVENT OF
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION AS
THE LOW DEPARTS.
THE RAIN WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL.
A WELCOME CHANGE ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)
AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN CLEAR
SKIES AND FIRMLY ESTABLISH A COOLER BUT STABLE AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA, MARKING A RETURN TO CRISP, DRY AUTUMN
WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS, AND
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SUB-VFR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ032-033-
043-044-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ022-023-
034-035-045>047.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
019-020.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/EB
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