517
FXUS61 KRNK 260002
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
802 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. CLOUDS MAY THICKEN AT TIMES AND PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR RAIN INCREASES FOR
MONDAY AND THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATED NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT COOLING OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE ARE SOME
LOOSE CLUSTERS OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE REGION, BUT GIVEN HOW DRY
IT IS ALOFT, MUCH OF THIS RAIN MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS THE
GROUND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. INFLUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS
ONGOING AHEAD OF A MID CONUS ARE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN ELEVATED SO AS IT SPILLS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST LOOK FOR MAINLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS.
THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN ATTMS, MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
LEADING TO ELEVATED SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH
THE GROUND IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. OTHER THAN THAT, NO
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST. EVEN IF IT
DOES, WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY MORE HEADLINES FOR FROST OR
FREEZE. EFFECTIVE TODAY, OCT 25TH, WE HAVE ENDED THE FROST FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE ENTIRE RNK SERVICE AREA. WE WILL NO LONGER
HIGHLIGHT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2025.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD.
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOCATION AND CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF THE LOW, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH IN
NC, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND WEDGE INTO OUR AREA
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERCAST SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MOISTURE
RUNNING OVER TOP OF THE SURFACE WEDGE.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER LOW SWINGS DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL HAVE
SUPPORT FROM A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER TO ISOLATED AT BEST FOR TUESDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON, WITH MODELS VARYING HOW MUCH RAIN COVERAGE STICKS
AROUND OUR AREA. NONETHELESS, DREARY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. RAIN TOTALS WILL VARY, WITH AREAS NORTH OF US-460
LIKELY ONLY SEEING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA,
AROUND A QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE NC
MOUNTAINS SEEING THE HIGHEST TOTALS, NEAR AN INCH. THE WEDGE WILL
ALSO KEEP WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY, WITH NE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH POSSIBLE, GUSTING TO 20+ MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY, DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE KEEPING HEAVY CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, CLEARS OUT FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
2) HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON LATE
WEEK.
3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT MODERATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND OVER OUR AREA FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS OF
NOW, TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW DUE TO MODELS SHOWING VARYING STRENGTHS,
LOCATION, AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
FINALLY ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY, REPLACED BY A LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TROUGH, COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AND SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT SNOW COULD FALL IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WHILE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY, THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON
COULD OCCUR FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED TO SEE IF THIS TRENDS UP OR DOWN, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW FOR NOW. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY BUT GUSTY, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS OF 5-10+ MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A TRICKY HALLOWEEN EVENING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH
THEY SLIGHTLY MODERATE BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S/50S, INCREASING TO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S, FALLING INTO THE 30S AREA-WIDE BY THE
WEEKEND DUE TO CLEAR SKIES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS RELATIVELY CALM. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA AND THEY MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOWER
END (NO MORE THAN 30% CHANCE). THE AIR ALOFT IS VERY DRY SO ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. GRANTED,
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PICK UP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT BRINGING BROKEN
AND OVERCAST SKIES TO ALL TERMINALS. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A MIX BETWEEN HIGH LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL AFFECT AREAS
MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. KBLF, KBCB, AND KDAN WILL
HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS, BUT THEIR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL ON THE LOWER END (20-30%). ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR ALL TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CG/PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...CG/PM
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