385
FXUS61 KRNK 260653
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
253 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL. CLOUDS MAY THICKEN AT TIMES AND PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
UNTIL TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR RAIN INCREASES FOR MONDAY
AND THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.
WHILE MAINLY SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING EASTWARD
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN THAT MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE HERE AND THERE THOUGH
LARGELY SHOULD BE VIRGA OR REMAIN AN ALTO DECK TODAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG THE EASTERN REACHES OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ADVECT NEWD TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW.
THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
MOISTURE OVERRUNS A CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE THANKS TO A STRONG
PARENT RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
TEMPS SET TO MODERATE WARMER TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS HAVING
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS TONIGHT STAYING MAINLY IN
THE 40S WITH AFOREMENTIONED INCREASED MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GENERALLY WET THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD.
WILL START MONDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST, RADIATING MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR PUSHED IN BY THE
HIGH, RESULTING IN A GRADIENT IN RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON RANGING FROM AROUND LOCALLY AN INCH IN THE HIGHLANDS OF
NORTH CAROLINA TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
64 CORRIDOR WEST OF LEXINGTON. THAT STATED, ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS SINCE LATE SUMMER ACROSS THE
REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH AWAY TUESDAY EVENING, HOWEVER COOL CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH TOTALS OF AT LEAST
ONE HALF INCH FOR MOST OF OUR AREA, AND POTENTIALLY MORE. RAINFALL
IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN PROBABLE FOR THURSDAY, DECREASING COVERAGE INTO FRIDAY.
2) HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
3) MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY FOR HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES.
TIMING OF WHEN LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE MID-ATLANTIC REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO THERE'S POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING AWAY AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN RESIDUAL
MOUNTAINS SHOWERS THAT COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY, BUT OTHERWISE
DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE LATEST DATA TO SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE RIDGETOPS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND
THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THIS HAPPENING AT THIS POINT. BELIEVE MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES ON FRIDAY
EVENING, HOWEVER WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 MPH TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL MAKE
THE AIR FEEL 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK GIVEN DECREASING CLOUDS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY ALTO CIGS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT TIMES TODAY, THOUGH THE MAIN RAIN/SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
KLWB AND KLYH HAVE A LOWER CHANCE OF GETTING ANY PRECIPITATION. BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAINLY CALM THIS MORNING THEN LIGHT NE TO SE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MOST SITES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ALL
TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AB/CG
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