222
FXUS61 KRNK 261859
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
259 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
BACK TO BACK STORM SYSTEMS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF RAIN FROM SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN OCCURRING REGIONWIDE. AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR WEST AND TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST WITH A PIPELINE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF, AND OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH IS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROVIDING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA BUT AMOUNTS
SO FAR NOT VERY MEANINGFUL.
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR DEEPENING
MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY FROM BLUEFIELD TO LYNCHBURG AND
SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN INCREASES LATE MONDAY WITH
AREAS NORTH OF 460 GETTING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY WITH LITTLE OR NOTHING ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
NARROW RANGE...MAINLY 40S AT NIGHT AND 50S DURING THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING, THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
2) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER OUR AREA DIES OUT, A COASTAL LOW THEN
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA. THE
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. AT THE
SAME TIME, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND INTO CANADA WILL WEDGE DOWN EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE EACH DAY.
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE
COASTAL LOW WILL KEEP NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH. A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES EAST, WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING IT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME RAIN BEING HEAVY AT TIMES. MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AT HOW MUCH RAIN COVERAGE THERE WILL BE, BUT
RECENT RUNS HAVE TRENDED RAINFALL UP. CURRENT EXPECTED TOTALS HAVE
INCREASED, WITH AT LEAST AN INCH EXPECTED AREA-WIDE, WITH UP TO
AROUND 2" POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS. THESE TOTALS ARE ONLY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THIS INCREASE IN RAINFALL, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HALLOWEEN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
CHILLY AND WINDY, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND HEAVY CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATE WEEK, CLEARING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.
2) A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY THE
WEEKEND.
THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA, WITH THE UPPER LOW BRIEFLY BECOMING CUTOFF FROM THE
JET STREAM. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE
MAIN LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS, DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS, AS ONLY SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH, BUT IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY, THOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE LOW PASSES AND REMAIN
ELEVATED, AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE RIDGETOPS. SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES ON FRIDAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER IN
THE DAY. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER MOVES IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH BUILDS IN, LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S. THIS MODERATES
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 50S/60S FOR THE WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 01Z/9PM THIS
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. ATTM IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBLF-KLYH LINE, WITH CLEAR
AIR (CLOUD BASES ABOVE 10KFT) TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH PROBABILITY FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS INCREASING AND PERSISTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR MOST SITES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FOR ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page