934
FXUS61 KRNK 270729
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS IT WEDGES AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND, STRONGER LOW THAT WILL BRING MORE ABUNDANT RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN EVENING ACTIVITIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 12 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AS WAVES OF ENERGY MAKE THEIR WAY
EASTWARD AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PUSH
COOL DRY AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THROUGH TONIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. WHILE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY, COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
BRUNT OF THE LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SOME RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY WILL
FALL TONIGHT, WITH OVERALL TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.25"
ALONG & NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 (WEST OF LEXINGTON), TO 1" TO
1.5" ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER LOCALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THERE. RAINFALL
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE, THOUGH MINOR AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN A FEW STORM DRAINS
OBSTRUCTED BY FALLEN LEAVES AND DEAD BRUSH. BUT, GIVEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS SINCE LATE SUMMER, NEARLY ALL OF THIS
RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO OUR REGION.
GIVEN GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PERIODS RAIN, BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL CHANCE LITTLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, FLUCTUATING BY ONLY 4 TO 7 DEGREES BETWEEN DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND PERHAPS BY 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM
12 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. RAINY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION, AND IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA, AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THOUGH TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
FAR AWAY FROM THE AREA AND DRIER AIR BROUGHT IN BY THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL EAT AWAY AT THE REMNANT MOISTURE. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND LOW AS IT NEARS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, LESSENING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
LATE THURSDAY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS COLDER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM
1.50" TO NEARLY 2.50", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BLUE
RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. PROBABILITIES OF 48 HR RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING EXCEEDING 2" ARE BETWEEN 55% TO 65% ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG VA TO DANVILLE VA, GIVEN
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, WITH THE RECENT DRY
STRETCH, MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL, BUT COULD SEE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAIN RATES.
THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL, BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THURSDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER, THOUGH STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, IN
THE MID 40S IN THE WEST AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, GUSTING BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGETOPS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRIER WEATHER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WITH STILL
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. 500MB FLOW WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LOSES AMPLITUDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AS DRY AIR GETS WRAPPED
INTO THE SYSTEM. UPSLOPE SHOWERS LINGER FOR SOUTHEAST WV INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AND A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS IT ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REINVIGORATE THOSE
SHOWERS, BUT NOT LOOKING AT HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE. 850MB WINDS, BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KNOTS, AND PRESSURE
RISES AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONGER WINDS ON FRIDAY, GUSTS IN THE 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 MPH
RANGE.
ANOTHER 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. DISAGREEMENTS IN
THE VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS ON THE TIMING, EVOLUTION, AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD, DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND HIGHER PEAKS, IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE A WARMING TREND IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND
EXPAND INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, AND HIGHS WILL REACH
LOW 50S IN THE WEST TO LOW 60S IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONFINED TO THE
VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA,
OTHERWISE CEILING BASES RANGE FROM 3KFT TO 10KFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF A BLF-ROA-LYH LINE.
WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AT LESS THAN
10KTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR TODAY, WITH
PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW AND PERIODS OF RAIN
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, WITH AIRPORTS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
MAINLY DURING THE 28/00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION, PERIODS
OF RAIN AND FOG WILL ALSO IMPACT VISIBILITIES, LOWERING THEM
INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM RANGE AT TIMES. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20KT TO 25KT RANGE DURING THE 06Z THROUGH 12Z TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE AVIATION SCENARIO IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING,
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND IMPROVED FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NF
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